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Abstract Energetic electron precipitation from Earth’s outer radiation belt heats the upper atmosphere and alters its chemical properties. The precipitating flux intensity, typically modelled using inputs from high-altitude, equatorial spacecraft, dictates the radiation belt’s energy contribution to the atmosphere and the strength of space-atmosphere coupling. The classical quasi-linear theory of electron precipitation through moderately fast diffusive interactions with plasma waves predicts that precipitating electron fluxes cannot exceed fluxes of electrons trapped in the radiation belt, setting an apparent upper limit for electron precipitation. Here we show from low-altitude satellite observations, that ~100 keV electron precipitation rates often exceed this apparent upper limit. We demonstrate that such superfast precipitation is caused by nonlinear electron interactions with intense plasma waves, which have not been previously incorporated in radiation belt models. The high occurrence rate of superfast precipitation suggests that it is important for modelling both radiation belt fluxes and space-atmosphere coupling. 

Abstract We review observations of solar activity, geomagnetic variation, and auroral visibility for the extreme geomagnetic storm on 1872 February 4. The extreme storm (referred to here as the Chapman–Silverman storm) apparently originated from a complex active region of moderate area (≈ 500μsh) that was favorably situated near disk center (S19° E05°). There is circumstantial evidence for an eruption from this region at 9–10 UT on 1872 February 3, based on the location, complexity, and evolution of the region, and on reports of prominence activations, which yields a plausible transit time of ≈29 hr to Earth. Magnetograms show that the storm began with a sudden commencement at ≈14:27 UT and allow a minimum Dst estimate of ≤ −834 nT. Overhead aurorae were credibly reported at Jacobabad (British India) and Shanghai (China), both at 19.°9 in magnetic latitude (MLAT) and 24.°2 in invariant latitude (ILAT). Auroral visibility was reported from 13 locations with MLAT below ∣20∣° for the 1872 storm (ranging from ∣10.°0∣–∣19.°9∣ MLAT) versus one each for the 1859 storm (∣17.°3∣ MLAT) and the 1921 storm (∣16.°2∣ MLAT). The auroral extension and conservative storm intensity indicate a magnetic storm of comparable strength to the extreme storms of 1859 September (25.°1 ± 0.°5 ILAT and −949 ± 31 nT) and 1921 May (27.°1 ILAT and −907 ± 132 nT), which places the 1872 storm among the three largest magnetic storms yet observed. 

Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting. 

Abstract Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement (STEVE) is a latitudinally narrow, purple‐band emission observed at subauroral latitudes. Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs characterized by major red emission, and red/green arcs with both red and green emissions also occur at subauroral latitudes. Characteristics of magnetospheric source plasma and electromagnetic fields of these three types of arcs have not been fully understood because of the limited conjugate observations between magnetosphere and the ground. In this study, we report 11 conjugate observations (2 STEVEs, 7 SAR arcs, and 2 red/green arcs), using all‐sky images obtained at seven ground stations over more than four years from January 2017 to April 2021 and magnetospheric satellites (Arase and Van Allen Probes). We found that, in the inner magnetosphere, the source region of STEVEs and red/green arcs were located outside the plasmasphere, and that of the SAR arc was in the region of spatial overlap between the plasmasphere and ring current region. Electromagnetic waves at frequencies below 1 Hz were observed for STEVEs and red/green arcs. SuperDARN radar data showed a strong westward plasma flow in the ionosphere, especially during STEVE events, whereas the plasma flows associated with SAR arcs and red/green arcs were generally weaker and variable. The STEVE and SAR arc can appear simultaneously at slightly different latitudes and STEVEs and red/green arcs can transform into SAR arcs. These first comprehensive ground‐satellite measurements of three types of subauroral‐latitude auroras increase our understanding on similarlity, differences, and coupling of these auroras in the ionosphere and the magnetosphere.