Search for: All records

Abstract We review observations of solar activity, geomagnetic variation, and auroral visibility for the extreme geomagnetic storm on 1872 February 4. The extreme storm (referred to here as the Chapman–Silverman storm) apparently originated from a complex active region of moderate area (≈ 500μsh) that was favorably situated near disk center (S19° E05°). There is circumstantial evidence for an eruption from this region at 9–10 UT on 1872 February 3, based on the location, complexity, and evolution of the region, and on reports of prominence activations, which yields a plausible transit time of ≈29 hr to Earth. Magnetograms show that the storm began with a sudden commencement at ≈14:27 UT and allow a minimum Dst estimate of ≤ −834 nT. Overhead aurorae were credibly reported at Jacobabad (British India) and Shanghai (China), both at 19.°9 in magnetic latitude (MLAT) and 24.°2 in invariant latitude (ILAT). Auroral visibility was reported from 13 locations with MLAT below ∣20∣° for the 1872 storm (ranging from ∣10.°0∣–∣19.°9∣ MLAT) versus one each for the 1859 storm (∣17.°3∣ MLAT) and the 1921 storm (∣16.°2∣ MLAT). The auroral extension and conservative storm intensity indicate a magnetic storm of comparable strength to the extreme storms of 1859 September (25.°1 ± 0.°5 ILAT and −949 ± 31 nT) and 1921 May (27.°1 ILAT and −907 ± 132 nT), which places the 1872 storm among the three largest magnetic storms yet observed. 

Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting. 

Abstract Energetic electron precipitation from Earth’s outer radiation belt heats the upper atmosphere and alters its chemical properties. The precipitating flux intensity, typically modelled using inputs from high-altitude, equatorial spacecraft, dictates the radiation belt’s energy contribution to the atmosphere and the strength of space-atmosphere coupling. The classical quasi-linear theory of electron precipitation through moderately fast diffusive interactions with plasma waves predicts that precipitating electron fluxes cannot exceed fluxes of electrons trapped in the radiation belt, setting an apparent upper limit for electron precipitation. Here we show from low-altitude satellite observations, that ~100 keV electron precipitation rates often exceed this apparent upper limit. We demonstrate that such superfast precipitation is caused by nonlinear electron interactions with intense plasma waves, which have not been previously incorporated in radiation belt models. The high occurrence rate of superfast precipitation suggests that it is important for modelling both radiation belt fluxes and space-atmosphere coupling. 

Abstract Ultra‐low‐frequency (ULF) waves are known to radially diffuse hundreds‐keV to few‐MeV electrons in the magnetosphere, as the range of drift frequencies of such electrons overlaps with the frequencies of the waves, leading to resonant interactions. The theoretical framework for this process is described by analytic expressions of the resonant interactions between electrons and toroidal and poloidal ULF wave modes in a background magnetic field. However, most expressions estimate the radial diffusion rates based on estimates of the power of ULF waves that are obtained either from spacecraft close to the equatorial plane or from the ground. In this study, using multiyear measurements from the THEMIS and Arase missions, we present a statistical analysis of the distribution of ULF wave power in magnetic latitude and local time and show that the wave power of the radial and azimuthal components of the magnetic field increases away from the magnetic equator. Our result could have significant implications for the radial diffusion rates as currently estimated. 

Abstract We report the concurrent observations of F‐region plasma changes and field‐aligned currents (FACs) above isolated proton auroras (IPAs) associated with electromagnetic ion cyclotron Pc1 waves. Key events on March 19, 2020 and September 12, 2018 show that ground magnetometers and all‐sky imagers detected concurrent Pc1 wave and IPA, during which NOAA POES observed precipitating energetic protons. In the ionospheric F‐layer above the IPA zone, the Swarm satellites observed transverse Pc1 waves, which span wider latitudes than IPA. Around IPA, Swarm also detected the bipolar FAC and localized plasma density enhancement, which is occasionally surrounded by wide/shallow depletion. This indicates that wave‐induced proton precipitation contributes to the energy transfer from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere.