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Rapid Intensification (RI) in Tropical Cyclone (TC) development is one of the most difficult and still challenging tasks in weather forecasting. In addition to the dynamical numerical simulations, commonly used techniques for RI (as well as TC intensity changes) analysis and prediction are the composite analysis and statistical models based on features derived from the composite analysis. Quite a large number of such selected and pre-determined features related to TC intensity change and RI have been accumulated by the domain scientists, such as those in the widely used SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) database. Moreover, new features are still being added with new algorithms and/or newly available datasets. However, there are very few unified frameworks for systematically distilling features from a comprehensive data source. One such unified Artificial Intelligence (AI) system was developed for deriving features from TC centers, and here, we expand that system to large-scale environmental condition. In this study, we implemented a deep learning algorithm, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and identified and refined potentially new features relevant to RI such as specific humidity in east or northeast, vorticity and horizontal wind in north and south relative to the TC centers, as well as ozone at high altitudes that could help the prediction and understanding of the occurrence of RI based on the deep learning network (named TCNET in this study). By combining the newly derived features and the features from the SHIPS database, the RI prediction performance can be improved by 43%, 23%, and 30% in terms of Kappa, probability of detection (POD), and false alarm rate (FAR) against the same modern classification model but with the SHIPS inputs only. 

Floods are often associated with hurricanes making landfall. When tropical cyclones/hurricanes make landfall, they are usually accompanied by heavy rainfall and storm surges that inundate coastal areas. The worst natural disaster in the United States, in terms of loss of life and property damage, was caused by hurricane storm surges and their associated coastal flooding. To monitor coastal flooding in the areas affected by hurricanes, we used data from sensors aboard the operational Polar-orbiting and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. This study aims to apply a downscaling model to recent severe coastal flooding events caused by hurricanes. To demonstrate how high-resolution 3D flood mapping can be made from moderate-resolution operational satellite observations, the downscaling model was applied to the catastrophic coastal flooding in Florida due to Hurricane Ian and in New Orleans due to Hurricanes Ida and Laura. The floodwater fraction data derived from the SNPP/NOAA-20 VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) observations at the original 375 m resolution were input into the downscaling model to obtain 3D flooding information at 30 m resolution, including flooding extent, water surface level and water depth. Compared to a 2D flood extent map at the VIIRS’ original 375 m resolution, the downscaled 30 m floodwater depth maps, even when shown as 2D images, can provide more details about floodwater distribution, while 3D visualizations can demonstrate floodwater depth more clearly in relative to the terrain and provide a more direct perception of the inundation situations caused by hurricanes. The use of 3D visualization can help users clearly see floodwaters occurring over various types of terrain conditions, thus identifying a hazardous flood from non-hazardous flood types. Furthermore, 3D maps displaying floodwater depth may provide additional information for rescue efforts and damage assessments. The downscaling model can help enhance the capabilities of moderate-to-coarse resolution sensors, such as those used in operational weather satellites, flood detection and monitoring. 

The cruise line industry (CLI) provides an opportunity to rapidly improve national (and regional) economies in destinations. However, lack of planning and proper preparation by destination authorities and the cruise industry can have significant impacts on the local community, commerce, and environment. This paper identifies and quantifies near-shore challenges between the national authorities and the CLI that include port facility preparedness and the potential stresses on local infrastructure. These key parameters used to quantify the impact of the CLI on established destinations can potentially become part of the analysis, negotiation, and communication between all parties involved (government, business, and tourists) as part of the contribution to ensure sustainable CLI destinations. The Port of Havana, Cuba was selected as the study site and was compared against similar cruise line destinations around the Meso-American region (Philipsburg, Sint Maarten, Belize City, Belize, and Progreso, Mexico). The Port of Havana’s natural infrastructure and the carriage available for the incoming ship (i.e., nautical charting) appear to be adequate for welcoming increased cruise ship traffic. The main concerns are the potential toll on local resources including the impact on port traffic and the local infrastructure required to support tourists once they depart the ship. 

Since 2 June 2020, unusual heavy and continuous rainfall from the Asian summer monsoon rainy season caused widespread catastrophic floods in many Asian countries, including primarily the two most populated countries, China and India. To detect and monitor the floods and estimate the potentially affected population, data from sensors aboard the operational polar-orbiting satellites Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-20 were used. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) with a spatial resolution of 375 m available twice per day aboard these two satellites can observe floodwaters over large spatial regions. The flood maps derived from the VIIRS imagery provide a big picture over the entire flooding regions, and demonstrate that, in July, in China, floods mainly occurred across the Yangtze River, Hui River and their tributaries. The VIIRS 5-day composite flood maps, along with a population density dataset, were combined to estimate the population potentially exposed (PPE) to flooding. We report here on the procedure to combine such data using the Zonal Statistic Function from the ArcGIS Spatial Analyst toolbox. Based on the flood extend for July 2020 along with the population density dataset, the Jiangxi and Anhui provinces were the most affected regions with more than 10 million people in Jingdezhen and Shangrao in Jiangxi province, and Fuyang and Luan in Anhui province, and it is estimated that about 55 million people in China might have been affected by the floodwaters. In addition to China, several other countries, including India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, were also severely impacted. In India, the worst inundated states include Utter Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, and West Bengal, and it is estimated that about 40 million people might have been affected by severe floods, mainly in the northern states of Bihar, Assam, and West Bengal. The most affected country was Bangladesh, where one third of the country was underwater, and the estimated population potentially exposed to floods is about 30 million in Bangladesh. 

Among all the natural hazards throughout the world, floods occur most frequently. They occur in high latitude regions, such as: 82% of the area of North America; most of Russia; Norway, Finland, and Sweden in North Europe; China and Japan in Asia. River flooding due to ice jams may happen during the spring breakup season. The Northeast and North Central region, and some areas of the western United States, are especially harmed by floods due to ice jams and snowmelt. In this study, observations from operational satellites are used to map and monitor floods due to ice jams and snowmelt. For a coarse-to-moderate resolution sensor on board the operational satellites, like the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series, and the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on board the GOES-R series, a pixel is usually composed of a mix of water and land. Water fraction can provide more information and can be estimated through mixed-pixel decomposition. The flood map can be derived from the water fraction difference after and before flooding. In high latitude areas, while conventional observations are usually sparse, multiple observations can be available from polar-orbiting satellites during a single day, and river forecasters can observe ice movement, snowmelt status and flood water evolution from satellite-based flood maps, which is very helpful in ice jam determination and flood prediction. The high temporal resolution of geostationary satellite imagery, like that of the ABI, can provide the greatest extent of flood signals, and multi-day composite flood products from higher spatial resolution imagery, such as VIIRS, can pinpoint areas of interest to uncover more details. One unique feature of our JPSS and GOES-R flood products is that they include not only normal flood type, but also a special flood type as the supra-snow/ice flood, and moreover, snow and ice masks. Following the demonstrations in this study, it is expected that the JPSS and GOES-R flood products, with ice and snow information, can allow dynamic monitoring and prediction of floods due to ice jams and snowmelt for wide-end users. 

In this study, optical and microwave satellite observations are integrated to estimate soil moisture at the same spatial resolution as the optical sensors (5km here) and applied for drought analysis in the continental United States. A new refined model is proposed to include auxiliary data like soil texture, topography, surface types, accumulated precipitation, in addition to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) used in the traditional universal triangle method. It is found the new proposed soil moisture model using accumulated precipitation demonstrated close agreements with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) spatial patterns. Currently, the USDM is providing a weekly map. Recently, “flash” drought concept appears. To obtain drought map on daily basis, LST is derived from microwave observations and downscaled to the same resolution as the thermal infrared LST product and used to fill the gaps due to clouds in optical LST data. With the integrated daily LST available under nearly all weather conditions, daily soil moisture can be estimated at relatively higher spatial resolution than those traditionally derived from passive microwave sensors, thus drought maps based on soil moisture anomalies can be obtained on daily basis and made the flash drought analysis and monitoring become possible. 

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important input to the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model to derive the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for drought monitoring. Currently, LST inputs to the ALEXI model come from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, but clouds affect them. While passive microwave (e.g., AMSR-E and AMSR-2) sensors can penetrate non-rainy clouds and observe the Earth’s surface, but usually with a coarse spatial resolution, how to utilize multiple instruments’ advantages is an important methodology in remote sensing. In this study, we developed a new five-channel algorithm to derive LST from the microwave AMSR-E and AMSR-2 measurements and calibrate to the MODIS and GOES LST products. A machine learning method is implemented to further improve its performance. The MODIS and GOES LST products still show better performance than the AMSR-E and AMSR-2 LSTs when evaluated against the ground observations. Therefore, microwave LSTs are only used to fill the gaps due to clouds in the MODIS and GOES LST products. A gap filling method is further applied to fill the remaining gaps in the merged LSTs and downscale to the same spatial resolution as the MODIS and GOES products. With the daily integrated LST at the same spatial resolution as the MODIS and GOES products and available under nearly all sky conditions, the drought index, like the ESI, can be updated on daily basis. The initial implementation results demonstrate that the daily drought map can catch the fast changes of drought conditions and capture the signals of flash drought, and make flash drought monitoring become possible. It is expected that a drought map that is available on daily basis will benefit future drought monitoring.