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Abstract The composition and preservation state of biogenic carbonate archives, such as foraminiferal tests, record ocean chemistry during the lifetime of the organism and post‐depositional changes in ambient conditions via carbonate compensation. Depending upon the specific paleoclimate proxy, post‐depositional processes, including dissolution, may alter original paleoenvironmental signals captured by the foraminifer's test composition. Accordingly, quantifying dissolution independent of geochemical measurements can improve proxy interpretation. Developing independent tools may also be useful for investigating whether changes in paleoclimatic conditions are associated with changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. Such approaches can be improved further if they are applied to individual foraminiferal tests, as specimen‐to‐specimen differences can record higher‐frequency environmental changes compared to conventional bulk‐scale analyses. Here, we combine individual foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopic analyses (IFA) with X‐ray MicroCT Scanning to generate paired analyses of test density (a proxy for the extent of post‐depositional dissolution) and isotopic composition. As a proof‐of‐concept application of this approach, we analyzeGlobigerina bulloidestests from both coretop and latest Miocene/earliest Pliocene‐aged sediment from Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) Site 1088 (Agulhas Ridge). Our measurements and mixing model calculations show that within‐population differences in carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios are largely independent of dissolution extent. By comparing population averages from coretop and downcore sediments, we find that lower oxygen isotopic ratios (likely driven by higher calcification temperatures) are associated with greater extents of dissolution at ODP Site 1088. We interpret this finding to reflect coupled changes in carbonate chemistry and climatic conditions over million‐year timescales. 

El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, amplify climate variability throughout the world. Uncertain climate model predictions limit our ability to assess whether these climatic events could become more extreme under anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Palaeoclimate records provide estimates of past changes, but it is unclear if they can constrain mechanisms underlying future predictions. Here we uncover a mechanism using numerical simulations that drives consistent changes in response to past and future forcings, allowing model validation against palaeoclimate data. The simulated mechanism is consistent with the dynamics of observed extreme El Niño events, which develop when western Pacific warm pool waters expand rapidly eastwards because of strongly coupled ocean currents and winds. These coupled interactions weaken under glacial conditions because of a deeper mixed layer driven by a stronger Walker circulation. The resulting decrease in ENSO variability and extreme El Niño occurrence is supported by a series of tropical Pacific palaeoceanographic records showing reduced glacial temperature variability within key ENSO-sensitive oceanic regions, including new data from the central equatorial Pacific. The model–data agreement on past variability, together with the consistent mechanism across climatic states, supports the prediction of a shallower mixed layer and weaker Walker circulation driving more frequent extreme El Niño genesis under greenhouse warming. 

Abstract Particle mixing by benthic fauna beneath the sediment‐water interface (or bioturbation) fundamentally challenges the proxy based retrieval of past climatic conditions from deep‐sea sediment cores. Previous efforts targeted the impacts of bioturbation on the nature of paleoceanographic changes gleaned from the proxy record, whereas impacts on seasonal and/or interannual variability reconstructions have received less attention. We present TurbIFA (Tracking uncertainty of reworking & bioturbation on IFA), a software that adapts and combines existing algorithms to quantitatively estimate the impact of sediment reworking and other uncertainties and assess significance of ocean and climate variability reconstructions based on individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA). Building upon previous idealized investigations of bioturbation using hydroclimate‐sediment simulations, TurbIFA advances the IFA proxy system modeling such that users may directly assess the sensitivity of their data to various local parameters related to shell reworking across the global ocean. Using the output of state‐of‐the‐art coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models, TurbIFA simulates planktic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O or Mg/Ca‐temperature signal carriers and evaluates uncertainties in the sample size, analytical protocols along with as those arising from bioturbation. Application of TurbIFA to synthetic and existing data sets indicates that the significance of IFA‐based reconstructions can be assessed once the impacts of sediment accumulation rates, sediment mixed layer depths, length of time integrated by the chosen IFA sampling interval, and changes in the amplitude of climate variability (i.e., the targeted environmental signal) are comprehensively evaluated. We contend that TurbIFA can aid quantitative assessments of past seasonal and interannual variability gleaned from the paleoceanographic record. 

Abstract In this work, we utilize a transect of core top, mid- to late Holocene, sediments from the Eastern Siberian Sea to the central Arctic Ocean, spanning gradients in upper-ocean water column properties, to examine regional planktic foraminiferal species abundances and geochemistry. We present species- and morphotype-specific foraminiferal assemblages at these sites and stable isotope analyses of neogloboquadrinids. We find little variation in planktic species populations, and only small variations in N. pachyderma morphotype distributions, between sites. Spatial averages of N. pachyderma morphotype and N. incompta δ18O values show no significant differences, suggesting a similar calcification depth for all morphotypes of N. pachyderma and N. incompta across our sites, which we estimate to be between ∼ 50–150 m. Values of δ18O of a group of unencrusted specimens delineate a shallower calcification habitat. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma-2 Mg/Ca values yield temperatures outside the range of observations using available calibration equations, pointing toward the need for more Arctic-specific Mg/Ca-temperature calibrations. 

The observation of extremely low radiocarbon content / old radiocarbon ages (>4000 years old) in the intermediate-depth ocean during the last ice age draws attention to our incomplete understanding of ocean carbon cycling. For example, glacial-interglacial seawater 14C anomalies near the Gulf of California have been explained by both the advection from a 14C-depleted abyssal source and local geologic carbon flux. To provide insight to this the origin of the seawater 14C anomalies, we have produced several new records of glacial-interglacial intermediate water (i.e., 14C, δ11B, δ18O, and δ13C) in waters that are “upstream” and “downstream” of the Gulf of California. These observations plus geochemical modeling allow us to: (1) Answer whether the old seawater 14C ages are advected or produced locally; (2) Identify the approximate chemical make-up of this carbon; and (3) Consider the role of known sedimentary processes in this carbon flux to the ocean. (Note that several sites have age model controls based on terrestrial plant 14C ages, providing more confidence in our results.) Our new measurements and modeling indicate that the well-established >4000-year-old seawater 14C anomalies observed near known seafloor volcanism in the Gulf of California are not present “upstream,” indicating that this carbon flux results from a “local” geologic carbon. Furthermore, based on our new benthic foraminifera δ11B measurements, this local carbon Blux does not appear to affect seawater pH. Finally, we suggest several potential geologic carbon source(s) that could explain the anomalously old seawater 14C ages, the relatively unremarkable changes in seawater δ13C, and the essentially negligible change in seawater pH. 

The Indian Ocean exhibits multiple modes of interannual climate variability, whose future behaviour is uncertain. Recent analysis of glacial climates has uncovered an additional El Niño-like equatorial mode in the Indian Ocean, which could also emerge in future warm states. Here we explore changes in the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). These simulations are performed by an ensemble of models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and over four coordinated experiments: three past periods – the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago), the last interglacial (127 000 years ago) – and an idealized forcing scenario to examine the impact of greenhouse forcing. The two interglacial experiments are used to characterize the role of orbital variations in the seasonal cycle, whilst the other pair focus on responses to large changes in global temperature. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) is damped in both the mid-Holocene and last interglacial, with the amount related to the damping of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. No coherent changes in the strength of the IOBM are seen with global temperature changes; neither are changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) nor the Niño-like mode. Under orbital forcing, the IOD robustly weakens during the mid-Holocene experiment, with only minor reductions in amplitude during the last interglacial. Orbital changes do impact the SST pattern of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with the cold pole reaching up to the Equator and extending along it. Induced changes in the regional seasonality are hypothesized to be an important control on changes in the Indian Ocean variability. 

Abstract Several modes of tropical sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability operate on year‐to‐year (interannual) timescales and profoundly shape seasonal precipitation patterns across adjacent landmasses. Substantial uncertainty remains in addressing how SST variability will become altered under sustained greenhouse warming. Paleoceanographic estimates of changes in variability under past climatic states have emerged as a powerful method to clarify the sensitivity of interannual variability to climate forcing. Several approaches have been developed to investigate interannual SST variability within and beyond the observational period, primarily using marine calcifiers that afford subannual‐resolution sampling plans. Amongst these approaches, geochemical variations in coral skeletons are particularly attractive for their near‐monthly, continuous sampling resolution, and capacity to focus on SST anomalies after removing an annual cycle calculated over many years (represented as geochemical oscillations). Here we briefly review the paleoceanographic pursuit of interannual variability. We additionally highlight recent research documented by Ong et al., (2022,https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004483) who demonstrate the utility of Sr/Ca variations in capturing SST variability using a difficult‐to‐sample meandroid coral species,Colpophyllia natans, which is widespread across the Caribbean region and can be used to generate records spanning multiple centuries. 

Abstract The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is teleconnected to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this relationship is nonstationary and has shifted significantly in recent decades. Characterizing the drivers of such shifts is crucial for improving ASM prediction and extreme event preparedness. Paleoclimate records indicate a link between ASM strength and solar activity on multidecadal‐to‐centennial timescales, but 20th‐century data are too short to test mechanisms. Here we evaluate how solar irradiance influences the ASM‐ENSO relationship using last‐millennium paleoclimate data assimilation reconstructions and model simulations. We find that high solar irradiance weakens the ENSO‐East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) correlation, but strengthens the ENSO‐South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) correlation. Solar irradiance likely influences the strength of the ENSO‐EASM and ENSO‐SASM teleconnections via changes in the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the amplitude of ENSO events, respectively. We suggest a need for considering solar activity in decadal ASM rainfall predictions under global warming scenarios. 

Abstract Peninsular India hosts the initial rain-down of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) after which winds travel further east inwards into Asia. Stalagmite oxygen isotope composition from this region, such as those from Belum Cave, preserve the vital signals of the past ISM variability. These archives experience a single wet season with a single dominant moisture source annually. Here we present high-resolution δ 18 O, δ 13 C and trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mn/Ca) time series from a Belum Cave stalagmite spanning glacial MIS-6 (from ~ 183 to ~ 175 kyr) and interglacial substages MIS-5c-5a (~ 104 kyr to ~ 82 kyr). With most paleomonsoon reconstructions reporting coherent evolution of northern hemisphere summer insolation and ISM variability on orbital timescale, we focus on understanding the mechanisms behind millennial scale variability. Finding that the two are decoupled over millennial timescales, we address the role of the Southern Hemisphere processes in modulating monsoon strength as a part of the Hadley circulation. We identify several strong and weak episodes of ISM intensity during 104–82 kyr. Some of the weak episodes correspond to warming in the southern hemisphere associated with weak cross-equatorial winds. We show that during the MIS-5 substages, ISM strength gradually declined with millennial scale variability linked to Southern Hemisphere temperature changes which in turn modulate the strength of the Mascarene High.