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Abstract Meridional shifts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western edge create a dipole that drives hydroclimate variability in the southeastern United States and Caribbean region. Southwest displacements suppress rainfall in the southern Caribbean. Northwest displacements drive southeast United States and northern Caribbean drying. Projections for the 21st century suggest a more meridionally displaced NASH, which jeopardizes Caribbean island communities dependent on rain‐fed aquifers. While recent work indicates that Atlantic and Pacific Ocean‐atmosphere variability influenced the NASH during the instrumental period, little is known about NASH behavior and subsequent hydroclimate responses over longer timescales. To address this limitation, we developed a ∼6000‐years long rainfall record through the analysis of calcite raft deposits archived within sediments from a coastal sinkhole in the northeast Bahamas (Abaco Island). Increased (decreased) calcite raft deposition provides evidence for increased (decreased) rainfall driven by NASH variability. We use simulations from the Community Earth System Model to support this interpretation. These simulations improve our understanding of NASH behavior on timescales congruous with the reconstruction and suggest an important role for the state of the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, model simulations and a compilation of regional hydroclimate reconstructions reveal that the NASH‐driven dipole dominates northern and southern Caribbean rainfall on centennial timescales. These results bring Holocene Caribbean hydroclimate variability into sharper focus while providing important context for present and future changes to regional climate. Additionally, this study highlights the need for improved future predictions of the state of the Pacific Ocean to best inform water scarcity mitigation strategies for at‐risk Caribbean communities. 

Sinkholes develop on carbonate landscapes when caves collapse and can subsequently become lake-like environments if they are flooded by local groundwater. Sediment cores retrieved from sinkholes have yielded high-resolution reconstructions of past environmental change, hydroclimate, and hurricane activity. However, our understanding of the internal sedimentary processes of these systems remains incomplete. Here, we use a multiproxy approach including sedimentology (stratigraphy, coarse-grained particle density, bulk organic matter content), micropaleontology (ostracods), and geochemistry (δ13C and δ2H on n-alkanoic acids) to reconstruct evidence for paleolimnology and regional hydroclimate from a continuous stratigraphic record (Emerald Pond sinkhole) in the northern Bahamas that spans the middle to late Holocene. Basal peat at 8.9 m below modern sea level documents the maximum sea-level position at ~ 8200 cal. yr BP. Subsequent upward vertical migration of the local aquifer caused by regional sea-level rise promoted carbonate-marl deposition from ~ 8300 to 1700 cal. yr BP. A shift in coarse particle deposition and ostracods at 5500 cal. yr BP suggests some environmental change, which may be related to one or multiple internal or external drivers. Sapropel deposition from ~ 1700 to 1300 cal. yr BP indicates a fundamental change in limnology to promote increased organic matter preservation, perhaps related to the regional cooling during the Dark Ages Cold Period. We find δ2H28 values are largely invariant from 7700 to 6150 cal. yr BP suggesting a generally stable hydroclimate (mean − 133‰, 1σ = 5‰). The shift to more depleted values (− 156‰, 1σ = 19‰) at ~ 6000–4800 cal. yr BP may be linked to a weakened (eastern displaced) North Atlantic Subtropical High. Nevertheless, additional local hydroclimate records are needed to better disentangle uncertainties from either internal or external influences on the resultant measurements. 

Dissolution of carbonate platforms, like The Bahamas, throughout Quaternary sea-level oscillations have created mature karst landscapes that can include sinkholes and off-shore blue holes. These karst features are flooded by saline oceanic waters and meteoric-influenced groundwaters, which creates unique groundwater environments and ecosystems. Little is known about the modern benthic meiofauna, like foraminifera, in these environments or how internal hydrographic characteristics of salinity, dissolved oxygen, or pH may influence benthic habitat viability. Here we compare the total benthic foraminiferal distributions in sediment-water interface samples collected from <2 m water depth on the carbonate tidal flats, and the two subtidal blue holes Freshwater River Blue Hole and Meredith’s Blue Hole, on the leeward margin of Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. All samples are dominated by miliolid foraminifera (i.e.,QuinqueloculinaandTriloculina), yet notable differences emerge in the secondary taxa between these two environments that allows identification of two assemblages: a Carbonate Tidal Flats Assemblage (CTFA) vs. a Blue Hole Assemblage (BHA). The CTFA includes abundant common shallow-water lagoon foraminifera (e.g.,Peneroplis,Rosalina,Rotorbis), while the BHA has higher proportions of foraminifera that are known to tolerate stressful environmental conditions of brackish and dysoxic waters elsewhere (e.g.,Pseudoeponides,Cribroelphidium,Ammonia). We also observe how the hydrographic differences between subtidal blue holes can promote different benthic habitats for foraminifera, and this is observed through differences in both agglutinated and hyaline fauna. The unique hydrographic conditions in subtidal blue holes make them great laboratories for assessing the response of benthic foraminiferal communities to extreme environmental conditions (e.g., low pH, dysoxia). 

The first Caribbean settlers were Amerindians from South America. Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, the final islands colonized in the northernmost Bahamas, were inhabited by the Lucayans when Europeans arrived. The timing of Lucayan arrival in the northern Bahamas has been uncertain because direct archaeological evidence is limited. We document Lucayan arrival on Great Abaco Island through a detailed record of vegetation, fire, and landscape dynamics based on proxy data from Blackwood Sinkhole. From about 3,000 to 1,000 y ago, forests dominated by hardwoods and palms were resilient to the effects of hurricanes and cooling sea surface temperatures. The arrival of Lucayans by about 830 CE (2σ range: 720 to 920 CE) is demarcated by increased burning and followed by landscape disturbance and a time-transgressive shift from hardwoods and palms to the modern pine forest. Considering that Lucayan settlements in the southern Bahamian archipelago are dated to about 750 CE (2σ range: 600 to 900 CE), these results demonstrate that Lucayans spread rapidly through the archipelago in less than 100 y. Although precontact landscapes would have been influenced by storms and climatic trends, the most pronounced changes follow more directly from landscape burning and ecosystem shifts after Lucayan arrival. The pine forests of Abaco declined substantially between 1500 and 1670 CE, a period of increased regional hurricane activity, coupled with fires on an already human-impacted landscape. Any future intensification of hurricane activity in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean threatens the sustainability of modern pine forests in the northern Bahamas. 

Intensification and western displacement of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) is projected for this century, which can decrease Caribbean and southeastern American rainfall on seasonal and annual timescales. However, additional hydroclimate records are needed from the northern Caribbean to understand the long-term behavior of the NASH, and better forecast its future behavior. Here we present a multi-proxy sinkhole lake reconstruction from a carbonate island that is proximal to the NASH (Abaco Island, The Bahamas). The reconstruction indicates the northern Bahamas experienced a drought from ∼3300 to ∼2500 Cal yrs BP, which coincides with evidence from other hydroclimate and oceanographic records (e.g., Africa, Caribbean, and South America) for a synchronous southern displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and North Atlantic Hadley Cell. The specific cause of the hydroclimate change in the northeastern Caribbean region from ∼3300 to 2500 Cal yrs BP was probably coeval southern or western displacement of the NASH, which would have increased northeastern Caribbean exposure to subsiding air from higher altitudes.