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Abstract Lianas are key components of tropical forests, particularly at sites with more severe dry seasons. In contrast, trees are more abundant and speciose in wetter areas. The seasonal growth advantage (SGA) hypothesis postulates that such contrasting distributions are produced by higher liana growth relative to trees during seasonal droughts. The SGA has been investigated for larger size classes (e.g., ≥5 cm diameter at 1.3 m, dbh), but rarely for seedlings. Using eight annual censuses of >12,000 seedlings of 483 tree and liana species conducted at eight 1‐ha plots spanning a strong rainfall gradient in central Panama, we evaluated whether liana seedlings had higher growth and/or survival rates than tree seedlings at sites with stronger droughts. We also tested whether an extreme El Niño drought during the study period had a more negative effect on tree compared to liana seedlings. The absolute density of liana seedlings was similar across the rainfall gradient, ranging from 0.32 individuals/m²(0.20–0.49, 95% credible interval [CI]) at the driest end of the gradient and 0.27 individuals/m²(0.13–0.51 95% CI) at the wettest end of the gradient. The relative density of liana seedlings compared to tree seedlings was higher at sites with stronger dry seasons (0.27, 0.21–0.33, 95% CI), compared to wetter sites (0.12, 0.04–0.20 95% CI), due to lower tree seedling densities at drier sites. However, liana seedlings did not grow or survive better than tree seedlings in drier sites compared to wetter sites. Tree seedlings were more negatively impacted in terms of mortality by the extreme El Niño drought than liana seedlings, with an increase in annual mortality rate of 0.013 (0.003–0.025 95% CI) compared to lianas of −0.009 (−0.028 to 0.008 95% CI), but not growth. Our results indicate that lianas do not have a SGA over trees at the seedling stage. Instead, higher survival of liana versus tree seedlings during severe droughts or differences in liana versus tree fecundity or germination across the rainfall gradient likely explain why liana seedlings have higher relative densities at drier sites. 

ABSTRACT Conspecific density dependence (CDD) in plant populations is widespread, most likely caused by local‐scale biotic interactions, and has potentially important implications for biodiversity, community composition, and ecosystem processes. However, progress in this important area of ecology has been hindered by differing viewpoints on CDD across subfields in ecology, lack of synthesis across CDD‐related frameworks, and misunderstandings about how empirical measurements of local CDD fit within the context of broader ecological theories on community assembly and diversity maintenance. Here, we propose a conceptual synthesis of local‐scale CDD and its causes, including species‐specific antagonistic and mutualistic interactions. First, we compare and clarify different uses of CDD and related concepts across subfields within ecology. We suggest the use of local stabilizing/destabilizing CDD to refer to the scenario where local conspecific density effects are more negative/positive than heterospecific effects. Second, we discuss different mechanisms for local stabilizing and destabilizing CDD, how those mechanisms are interrelated, and how they cut across several fields of study within ecology. Third, we place local stabilizing/destabilizing CDD within the context of broader ecological theories and discuss implications and challenges related to scaling up the effects of local CDD on populations, communities, and metacommunities. The ultimate goal of this synthesis is to provide a conceptual roadmap for researchers studying local CDD and its implications for population and community dynamics. 

Abstract Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species^1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)³. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests^4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species^6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD^8,9have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data^10–12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones¹³. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity^14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests. 

Abstract Many studies identify fungal and oomycete phytopathogens as natural enemies capable of influencing plant species composition and promoting diversity in plant communities. However, little is known about how plant‐pathogen interactions vary along regional abiotic gradients or with tree species characteristics, which limits our understanding of the causes of variation in tree species richness.We surveyed 10,756 seedlings from 272 tree species for disease symptoms along a mean annual precipitation gradient in the tropical wet forests of Central Panama for 3 months in the early wet season (June–August) and 2 months in the following dry season (March–April). Over 99% of observed disease symptoms were caused by necrotrophic foliar pathogens, while less than 1% of symptoms were attributed to soilborne pathogens. Foliar disease incidence was inversely related to mean annual precipitation, a pattern which may be due to greater disease susceptibility among dry forest species.Foliar disease incidence increased with conspecific seedling density but did not respond to the proximity of conspecific adults. Although foliar disease incidence decreased as mean annual precipitation increased, the strength of conspecific density‐ or distance‐dependence was independent of the precipitation gradient.Seedlings of common tree species and species dispersed by non‐flying mammals had a higher risk of foliar pathogen incidence. Increased disease in common species may help reduce their dominance.Synthesis. The increases in foliar pathogen incidence with conspecific seedling density, species abundance, and dispersal mechanism indicate that foliar disease incidence is non‐random and may contribute to the regulation of tropical plant communities and species coexistence. Furthermore, the relationships between foliar disease incidence, dispersal mechanism and precipitation suggest plant‐pathogen interactions could shift as a response to climate change and disruption of the disperser community. 

Abstract Tropical forests are well known for their high woody plant diversity. Processes occurring at early life stages are thought to play a critical role in maintaining this high diversity and shaping the composition of tropical tree communities. To evaluate hypothesized mechanisms promoting tropical tree species coexistence and influencing composition, we initiated a census of woody seedlings and small saplings in the permanent 50 ha Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Situated in old‐growth, lowland tropical moist forest, the BCI FDP was originally established in 1980 to monitor trees and shrubs ≥1 cm diameter at 1.3 m above ground (dbh) at ca. 5‐year intervals. However, critical data on the dynamics occurring at earlier life stages were initially lacking. Therefore, in 2001 we established a 1‐m²seedling plot in the center of every 5 × 5 m section of the BCI FDP. All freestanding woody individuals ≥20 cm tall and <1 cm dbh (hereafter referred to as seedlings) were tagged, mapped, measured, and identified to species in 19,313 1‐m²seedling plots. Because seedling dynamics are rapid, we censused these seedling plots every 1–2 years. Here, we present data from the 14 censuses of these seedling plots conducted between the initial census in 2001 to the most recent census, in 2018. This data set includes nearly 1 M observations of ~185,000 individuals of >400 tree, shrub, and liana species. These data will permit spatially‐explicit analyses of seedling distributions, recruitment, growth, and survival for hundreds of woody plant species. In addition, the data presented here can be linked to openly‐available, long‐term data on the dynamics of trees and shrubs ≥1 cm dbh in the BCI FDP, as well as existing data sets from the site on climate, canopy structure, phylogenetic relatedness, functional traits, soil nutrients, and topography. This data set can be freely used for non‐commercial purposes; we request that users of these data cite this data paper in all publications resulting from the use of this data set. 

Abstract Identifying key traits that can serve as proxies for species drought resistance is crucial for predicting and mitigating the effects of climate change in diverse plant communities. Turgor loss point (π_tlp) is a recently emerged trait that has been linked to species distributions across gradients of water availability. However, a direct relationship between π_tlpand species ability to survive drought has yet to be established for woody species. Using a manipulative field experiment to quantify species drought resistance (i.e., their survival response to drought), combined with measurements of π_tlpfor 16 tree species, we show a negative relationship between π_tlpand seedling drought resistance. Using long‐term forest plot data, we also show that π_tlppredicts seedling survival responses to a severe El Niño‐related drought, although additional factors are clearly also important. Our study demonstrates that species with lower π_tlpexhibit higher survival under both experimental and natural drought. These results provide a missing cornerstone in the assessment of the traits underlying drought resistance in woody species and strengthen π_tlpas a proxy for evaluating which species will lose or win under projections of exacerbating drought regimes. 

Abstract As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño–related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long‐term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community‐wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015–16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought‐sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño–related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages. 

Abstract Environmental gradients act as potent filters on species distributions driving compositional shifts across communities. Compositional shifts may reflect differences in physiological tolerances to a limiting resource that result in broad distributions for tolerant species and restricted distributions for intolerant species (i.e. a nested pattern). Alternatively, trade‐offs in resource use or conflicting species' responses to multiple resources can result in complete turnover of species along gradients.We combined trait (leaf area, leaf mass per area, wood density and maximum height) and distribution data for 550 tree species to examine taxonomic and functional composition at 72 sites across strong gradients of soil phosphorus (P) and rainfall in central Panama.We determined whether functional and taxonomic composition was nested or turned over completely and whether community mean traits and species composition were more strongly driven by P or moisture.Turnover characterized the functional composition of tree communities. Leaf traits responded to both gradients, with species having larger and thinner leaves in drier and more fertile sites than in wetter and less fertile sites. These leaf trait–moisture relationships contradict predictions based on drought responses and suggest a greater role for differences in light availability than in moisture. Shifts in wood density and maximum height were weaker than for leaf traits with taller species dominating wet sites and low wood density species dominating P‐rich sites.Turnover characterized the taxonomic composition of tree communities. Geographic distances explained a larger fraction of variation for taxonomic composition than for functional composition, and community mean traits were more strongly driven by P than moisture.Synthesis. Our results offer weak support for the tolerance hypothesis for tree communities in central Panama. Instead, we observe functional and taxonomic turnover reflecting trade‐offs and conflicting species' responses to multiple abiotic factors including moisture, soil phosphorus and potentially other correlated variables (e.g. light). 

Assessing within-species variation in response to drought is crucial for predicting species’ responses to climate change and informing restoration and conservation efforts, yet experimental data are lacking for the vast majority of tropical tree species. We assessed intraspecific variation in response to water availability across a strong rainfall gradient for 16 tropical tree species using reciprocal transplant and common garden field experiments, along with measurements of gene flow and key functional traits linked to drought resistance. Although drought resistance varies widely among species in these forests, we found little evidence for within-species variation in drought resistance. For the majority of functional traits measured, we detected no significant intraspecific variation. The few traits that did vary significantly between drier and wetter origins of the same species all showed relationships opposite to expectations based on drought stress. Furthermore, seedlings of the same species originating from drier and wetter sites performed equally well under drought conditions in the common garden experiment and at the driest transplant site. However, contrary to expectation, wetter-origin seedlings survived better than drier-origin seedlings under wetter conditions in both the reciprocal transplant and common garden experiment, potentially due to lower insect herbivory. Our study provides the most comprehensive picture to date of intraspecific variation in tropical tree species’ responses to water availability. Our findings suggest that while drought plays an important role in shaping species composition across moist tropical forests, its influence on within-species variation is limited.