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Bae, K.H. ; Feng, B. ; Kim, S. ; LazarovaMolnar, S. ; Zheng, Z. ; Roeder, T. ; Thiesing, R. (Ed.)In the subsetselection approach to ranking and selection, a decisionmaker seeks a subset of simulated systems that contains the best with high probability. We present a new, generalized framework for constructing these subsets and demonstrate that some existing subsetselection procedures are situated within this framework. The subsets are built by calculating, for each system, a minimum standardized discrepancy between the observed performances and the space of problem instances for which that system is the best. A system’s minimum standardized discrepancy is then compared to a cutoff to determine whether the system is included in the subset. We examine the problem of finding the tightest statistically valid cutoff for each system and draw connections between our approach and other subsetselection methodologies. Simulation experiments demonstrate how the screening power and subset size are affected by the choice of standardized discrepancy.more » « less

Bae, K.H. ; Feng, B. ; Kim, S. ; LazarovaMolnar, S. ; Zheng, Z. ; Roeder, T. ; Thiesing, R. (Ed.)When subject to disruptive events, the dynamics of humaninfrastructure interactions can absorb, adapt, or, in a more abrupt manner, undergo substantial change. These changes are commonly studied when a disruptive event perturbs the physical infrastructure. Infrastructure breakdown is, thus, an indicator of the tipping point, and possible regime shift, in the humaninfrastructure interactions. However, determining the likelihood of a regime shift during a global pandemic, where no infrastructure breakdown occurs, is unclear. In this study, we explore the dynamics of humaninfrastructure interactions during the global COVID19 pandemic for the entire United States and determine the likelihood of regime shifts in human interactions with six different categories of infrastructure. Our results highlight the impact of statelevel characteristics, executive decisions, as well as the extent of impact by the pandemic as predictors of either undergoing or surviving regime shifts in humaninfrastructure interactions.more » « less

Bae, KH ; Feng, B ; Kim, S ; LazarovaMolnar, S ; Zheng, Z ; Roeder, T ; Thiesing, R (Ed.)The sample path generated by a stochastic simulation often exhibits significant variability within each replication, revealing periods of good and poor performance alike. As such, traditional summaries of aggregate performance measures overlook the more finegrained insights into the operational system behavior. In this paper, we take a simulation analytics view of output analysis, turning to machine learning methods to uncover key insights from the dynamic sample path. We present a k nearest neighbors model on system state information to facilitate realtime predictions of a stochastic performance measure. This model is built on the premise of a systemspecific measure of similarity between observations of the state, which we inform via metric learning. An evaluation of our approach is provided on a stochastic activity network and a wafer fabrication facility, both of which give us confidence in the ability of metric learning to provide interpretation and improved predictive performance.more » « less

Bae, KH ; Feng, B ; Kim, S ; LazarovaMolnar, S ; Zheng, Z ; Roeder, T ; Thiesing, R (Ed.)The nonstationary Poisson process (NSPP) is a workhorse tool for modeling and simulating arrival processes with timedependent rates. In many applications only a single sequence of arrival times are observed. While one sample path is sufficient for estimating the arrival rate or integrated rate function of the process—as we illustrate in this paper—we show that testing for Poissonness, in the general case, is futile. In other words, when only a single sequence of arrival data are observed then one can fit an NSPP to it, but the choice of “NSPP” can only be justified by an understanding of the underlying process physics, or a leap of faith, not by testing the data. This result suggests the need for sensitivity analysis when such a model is used to generate arrivals in a simulation.more » « less

Bae, KH ; Feng, B ; Kim, S ; LazarovaMolnar, S ; Zheng, Z ; Roeder, T ; Thiesing, R (Ed.)Cheap parallel computing has greatly extended the reach of ranking & selection (R&S) for simulation optimization. In this paper we present an evaluation of biPASS, a R&S procedure created specifically for parallel implementation and very large numbers of system designs. We compare biPASS to the stateofthe art Good Selection Procedure and an easytoimplement subset selection procedure. This is one of the few papers to consider both computational and statistical comparison of parallel R&S procedures.more » « less

Bae, KH ; Feng, B ; Kim, S ; LazarovaMolnar, S ; Zheng, Z ; Roeder, T ; Thiesing, R (Ed.)This paper studies computational improvement of the Gaussian Markov improvement algorithm (GMIA) whose underlying response surface model is a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF). GMIA’s computational bottleneck lies in the sampling decision, which requires factorizing and inverting a sparse, but large precision matrix of the GMRF at every iteration. We propose smart GMIA (sGMIA) that performs expensive linear algebraic operations intermittently, while recursively updating the vectors and matrices necessary to make sampling decisions for several iterations in between. The latter iterations are much cheaper than the former at the beginning, but their costs increase as the recursion continues and ultimately surpass the cost of the former. sGMIA adaptively decides how long to continue the recursion by minimizing the average periteration cost. We perform a floatingpoint operation analysis to demonstrate the computational benefit of sGMIA. Experiment results show that sGMIA enjoys computational efficiency while achieving the same search effectiveness as GMIA.more » « less

Bae, KH ; Feng, B ; Kim, S ; LazarovaMolnar, S ; Zheng, Z ; Roeder, T ; Thiesing, R. (Ed.)Protest is a collective action problem and can be modeled as a coordination game in which people take an action with the potential to achieve shared mutual benefits. In gametheoretic contexts, successful coordination requires that people know each others’ willingness to participate, and that this information is common knowledge among a sufficient number of people. We develop an agentbased model of collective action that was the first to combine social structure and individual incentives. Another novel aspect of the model is that a social network increases in density (i.e., new graph edges are formed) over time. The model studies the formation of common knowledge through local interactions and the characterizing social network structures. We use four realworld, datamined social networks (Facebook, Wikipedia, email, and peertopeer networks) and one scalefree network, and conduct computational experiments to study contagion dynamics under different conditions.more » « less