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Title: A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for the Path Planning of Safe Task-Aware UAS Operations
This paper introduces a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for the path planning to quantify the risk of unmanned aircraft systems’ (UAS) operations to the ground over populated areas. The proposed framework is designed to be flexible enough to address multiple concerns and objectives by utilizing the probabilistic risk exposure map (PREM) of the area of operation and UAS failure mode analysis with corresponding impact probability distributions on the ground. PREM is defined to be the risk of exposure of people or property on the ground to the presence of UAS in the air as a function of position, and itis used to model the distribution of risk exposure over the map. In this study, PREM isconstructed for the impact related risk conditions where their distributions are modeled as a mixture of bivariate normal distributions over the discretized map of the area. Along with PREM, UAS failure modes with ground impact distributions are used in the derivation of the risk function to quantify the risk of being hit by the failing UAS platform for bystanders, properties and the traffic on the ground. Then, utilizing the derived risk function as a planning cost function, the path planner algorithm is used to plan a path that minimizes the risk according to the proposed risk assessment framework. As a pathplanner, optimal bidirectional rapidly-exploring random trees (RRT) is selected due to its fast convergence and optimality guarantee. Finally, the results of simulations for different scenarios are compared and discussed in detail.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1724248
NSF-PAR ID:
10188672
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
AIAA Scitech 2019 Forum
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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