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1. Short-term solar irradiance forecasting using convolutional neural networks and cloud imagery

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe06d  

   Choi, Minsoo ; Rachunok, Benjamin ; Nateghi, Roshanak ( April 2021 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Access to accurate, generalizable and scalable solar irradiance prediction is critical for smooth solar-grid integration, especially in the light of the accelerated global adoption of solar energy production. Both physical and statistical prediction models of solar irradiance have been proposed in the literature. Physical models require meteorological forecasts—generated by computationally expensive models—to predict solar irradiance, with limited accuracy in sub-daily predictions. Statistical models leveragein-situmeasurements which require expensive equipment and do not account for meso-scale atmospheric dynamics. We address these fundamental gaps by developing a convolutional global horizontal irradiance prediction model, using convolutional neural networks and publicly accessible satellite cloud images. Our proposed model predicts solar irradiance in 12 different locations in the US for various prediction time horizons. Our model yields up to 24% improvement in an hour-ahead predictions and 26% in a day-ahead predictions compared to a persistence forecast. Moreover, using saliency maps and target-location-focused cropping, we demonstrate the benefits of incorporating meso-scale atmospheric dynamics for prediction performance. Our results are critical for energy systems planners, utility managers and electricity market participants to ensure efficient harvesting of the solar energy and reliable operation of the grid.

    

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2. Dynamic Response Recovery Using Ambient Synchrophasor Data: A Synthetic Texas Interconnection Case Study

   Liu, Shaohui ; Zhu, Hao ; Kekatos, Vassilis ( January 2023 , Proceedings of the 56th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences)

   Wide-area dynamic studies are of paramount importance to ensure the stability and reliability of power grids. This paper puts forth a comprehensive framework for inferring the dynamic responses in the small-signal regime using ubiquitous fast-rate ambient data collected during normal grid operations. We have shown that the impulse response between any pair of locations can be recovered in a model-free fashion by cross-correlating angle and power flow data streams collected only at these two locations, going beyond previous work based on frequency data only. The result has been established via model-based analysis of linearized second-order swing dynamics under certain conditions. Numerical validations demonstrate its applicability to realistic power system models including nonlinear, higher-order dynamics. In particular, the case study using synthetic PMU data on a synthetic Texas Interconnection (TI) system strongly corroborates the benefit of using angle PMU data over frequency one for real-world power system dynamic modeling. 

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3. Online predictive connected nd automated eco-driving on signalized arterials considering traffic control devices and road geometry constraints under uncertain traffic conditions

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2020.12.009  

   Zhao, S ; Zhang, K. ( March 2021 , Transportation research)

   null (Ed.)

   For energy-efficient Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) Eco-driving control on signalized arterials under uncertain traffic conditions, this paper explicitly considers traffic control devices (e.g., road markings, traffic signs, and traffic signals) and road geometry (e.g., road shapes, road boundaries, and road grades) constraints in a data-driven optimization-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) modeling framework. This modeling framework uses real-time vehicle driving and traffic signal data via Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) and Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communications. In the MPC-based control model, this paper mathematically formulates location-based traffic control devices and road geometry constraints using the geographic information from High-Definition (HD) maps. The location-based traffic control devices and road geometry constraints have the potential to improve the safety, energy, efficiency, driving comfort, and robustness of connected and automated driving on real roads by considering interrupted flow facility locations and road geometry in the formulation. We predict a set of uncertain driving states for the preceding vehicles through an online learning-based driving dynamics prediction model. We then solve a constrained finite-horizon optimal control problem with the predicted driving states to obtain a set of Eco-driving references for the controlled vehicle. To obtain the optimal acceleration or deceleration commands for the controlled vehicle with the set of Eco-driving references, we formulate a Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization (DRSO) model (i.e., a special case of data-driven optimization models under moment bounds) with Distributionally Robust Chance Constraints (DRCC) with location-based traffic control devices and road geometry constraints. We design experiments to demonstrate the proposed model under different traffic conditions using real-world connected vehicle trajectory data and Signal Phasing and Timing (SPaT) data on a coordinated arterial with six actuated intersections on Fuller Road in Ann Arbor, Michigan from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project. 

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4. Multi-scale representation learning for spatial feature distributions using grid cells

   Mai, Gengchen ( January 2020 , ICLR 2020)

   Unsupervised text encoding models have recently fueled substantial progress in NLP. The key idea is to use neural networks to convert words in texts to vector space representations based on word positions in a sentence and their contexts, which are suitable for end-to-end training of downstream tasks. We see a strikingly similar situation in spatial analysis, which focuses on incorporating both absolute positions and spatial contexts of geographic objects such as POIs into models. A general-purpose representation model for space is valuable for a multitude of tasks. However, no such general model exists to date beyond simply applying discretization or feed-forward nets to coordinates, and little effort has been put into jointly modeling distributions with vastly different characteristics, which commonly emerges from GIS data. Meanwhile, Nobel Prize-winning Neuroscience research shows that grid cells in mammals provide a multi-scale periodic representation that functions as a metric for location encoding and is critical for recognizing places and for path-integration. Therefore, we propose a representation learning model called Space2Vec to encode the absolute positions and spatial relationships of places. We conduct experiments on two real-world geographic data for two different tasks: 1) predicting types of POIs given their positions and context, 2) image classification leveraging their geo-locations. Results show that because of its multi-scale representations, Space2Vec outperforms well-established ML approaches such as RBF kernels, multi-layer feed-forward nets, and tile embedding approaches for location modeling and image classification tasks. Detailed analysis shows that all baselines can at most well handle distribution at one scale but show poor performances in other scales. In contrast, Space2Vec's multi-scale representation can handle distributions at different scales. 

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5. Global analysis of synchronization performance for power systems: bridging the theory-practice gap

   https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2019.2942536  

   Paganini, Fernando ; Mallada, Enrique ( September 2019 , IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control)

   The issue of synchronization in the power grid is receiving renewed attention, as new energy sources with different dynamics enter the picture. Global metrics have been proposed to evaluate performance, and analyzed under highly simplified assumptions. In this work we extend this approach to more realistic network scenarios, and more closely connect it with metrics used in power engineering practice. In particular, our analysis covers networks with generators of heterogeneous ratings and richer dynamic models of machines. Under a suitable proportionality assumption in the parameters, we show that the step response of bus frequencies can be decomposed in two components. The first component is a system-wide frequency that captures the aggregate grid behavior, and the residual component represents the individual bus frequency deviations from the aggregate. Using this decomposition, we define --and compute in closed form-- several metrics that capture dynamic behaviors that are of relevance for power engineers. In particular, using the system frequency, we define industry-style metrics (Nadir, RoCoF) that are evaluated through a representative machine. We further use the norm of the residual component to define a synchronization cost that can appropriately quantify inter-area oscillations. Finally, we employ robustness analysis tools to evaluate deviations from our proportionality assumption. We show that the system frequency still captures the grid steady-state deviation, and becomes an accurate reduced-order model of the grid as the network connectivity grows. Simulation studies with practically relevant data are included to validate the theory and further illustrate the impact of network structure and parameters on synchronization. Our analysis gives conclusions of practical interest, sometimes challenging the conventional wisdom in the field. 

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