Changes in mixing regimes and CO2 availability may promote harmful cyanobacterial blooms in polymictic lakes and ponds globally, but the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear. We integrated results from a natural experiment comprising an average-wet year (2011) and one with heat waves (2012), a long-term meteorological dataset (1960–2010), historical phosphorus concentrations and corresponding sedimentary pigment records, to determine, on different temporal scales, the mechanistic controls of cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic polymictic lake. Intense warming in 2012 was associated with: 1) increased stability of the water column with buoyancy frequencies exceeding 40 cph at the surface, 2) high phytoplankton biomass in spring (up to 125 mg WW L-1), 3) reduced downward transport of heat and 4) persistently depleted epilimnetic CO2 concentrations. CO2 depletion was effectively maintained by intense uptake by phytoplankton (influx up to 30 mmol m-2 d-1) in combination with reduced carbon inputs from the watershed during dry periods. Under eutrophic conditions these effects triggered massive bloom of buoyant cyanobacteria (up to 300 mg WW L-1). Complementary evidence from polynomial regression modelling using long-term datasets revealed that warming is the most important predictor of cyanobacterial abundance during the second half of the last century explaining 78% of the observedmore »
Predicting the effects of climate change on freshwater cyanobacterial blooms requires consideration of the complete cyanobacterial life cycle
To date, most research on cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes has focused on the pelagic life stage. However, examining the complete cyanobacterial life cycle—including benthic life stages—may be needed to accurately predict future bloom dynamics. The current expectation, derived from the pelagic life stage, is that blooms will continue to increase due to the warmer temperatures and stronger stratification associated with climate change. However, stratification and mixing have contrasting effects on different life stages: while pelagic cyanobacteria benefit from strong stratification and are adversely affected by mixing, benthic stages can benefit from increased mixing. The net effects of these potentially counteracting processes are not yet known, since most aquatic ecosystem models do not incorporate benthic stages and few empirical studies have tracked the complete life cycle over multiple years. Moreover, for many regions, climate models project both stronger stratification and increased storm-induced mixing in the coming decades; the net effects of those physical processes, even on the pelagic life stage, are not yet understood. We therefore recommend an integrated research agenda to study the dual effects of stratification and mixing on the complete cyanobacterial life cycle—both benthic and pelagic stages—using models, field observations and experiments.
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10206775
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Plankton Research
- ISSN:
- 0142-7873
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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