An official website of the United States government
The tropospheric response to midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined using an idealized model. SSW events are triggered by imposing high-latitude stratospheric heating perturbations of varying magnitude for only a few days, spun off from a free-running control integration (CTRL). The evolution of the thermally triggered SSWs is then compared with naturally occurring SSWs identified in CTRL. By applying a heating perturbation, with no modification to the momentum budget, it is possible to isolate the tropospheric response directly attributable to a change in the stratospheric polar vortex, independent of any planetary wave momentum torques involved in the initiation of an SSW. Zonal-wind anomalies associated with the thermally triggered SSWs first propagate downward to the high-latitude troposphere after ~2 weeks, before migrating equatorward and stalling at midlatitudes, where they straddle the near-surface jet. After ~3 weeks, the circulation and eddy fluxes associated with thermally triggered SSWs evolve very similarly to SSWs in CTRL, despite the lack of initial planetary wave driving. This suggests that at longer lags, the tropospheric response to SSWs is generic and it is found to be linearly governed by the strength of the lower-stratospheric warming, whereas at shorter lags, the initial formation of the SSW potentially plays a large role in the downward coupling. In agreement with previous studies, synoptic waves are found to play a key role in the persistent tropospheric jet shift at long lags. Synoptic waves appear to respond to the enhanced midlatitude baroclinicity associated with the tropospheric jet shift, and preferentially propagate poleward in an apparent positive feedback with changes in the high-latitude refractive index.
more »
« less
Sensitivity of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings to Previous Stratospheric Conditions
Abstract The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 4 (WACCM4), is used to investigate the influence of stratospheric conditions on the development of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). To this end, targeted experiments are performed on selected modeled SSW events. Specifically, the model is reinitialized three weeks before a given SSW, relaxing the surface fluxes, winds, and temperature below 10 km to the corresponding fields from the free-running simulation. Hence, the tropospheric wave evolution is unaltered across the targeted experiments, but the stratosphere itself can evolve freely. The stratospheric zonal-mean state is then altered 21 days prior to the selected SSWs and rerun with an ensemble of different initial conditions. It is found that a given tropospheric evolution concomitant with the development of an SSW does not uniquely determine the occurrence of an event and that the stratospheric conditions are relevant to the subsequent evolution of the stratospheric flow toward an SSW, even for a fixed tropospheric evolution. It is also shown that interpreting the meridional heat flux at 100 hPa as a proxy of the tropospheric injection of wave activity into the stratosphere should be regarded with caution and that stratospheric dynamics critically influence the heat flux at that altitude.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1643167
- PAR ID:
- 10256983
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 74
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2857 to 2877
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Although sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can improve subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts, it is unclear whether the two types of SSW - displacements and splits - have different near- surface effects. To examine the longer-term (i.e., multi-week lead) tropospheric response to displacements and splits, we utilize an intermediate-complexity model and impose wave-1 and wave-2 stratospheric heating perturbations spun-off from a control run. At longer lags, the tropospheric response is found to be insensitive to both the wavenumber and location of the imposed heating, in agreement with freely evolving displacements and splits identified in the control run. At shorter lags, however, large differences are found between displacements and splits in both the control run and the different wavenumber- forced events. In particular, in the control run, the free-running splits have an immediate barotropic response throughout the stratosphere and troposphere whereas displacements take 1–2 weeks before a near-surface response becomes evident. Interestingly, this barotropic response found during CTRL splits is not captured by the barotropically forced wave-2 events, indicating that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation is somehow coupled with the generation of the wave-2 splits. It is also found that in the control run, displacements yield stronger Polar-Cap temperature anomalies than splits, yet both still yield similar magnitude tropospheric responses. Hence, the strength of the stratospheric warming is not the only governing factor in the surface response. Overall, SSW classification based on vortex morphology may be useful for subseasonal but not seasonal tropospheric prediction.more » « less
-
Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (∼10–50 km) are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological wintertime westerly winds. SSWs are caused by the breaking of planetary‐scale waves that propagate upwards from the troposphere. During an SSW, the polar vortex breaks down, accompanied by rapid descent and warming of air in polar latitudes, mirrored by ascent and cooling above the warming. The rapid warming and descent of the polar air column affect tropospheric weather, shifting jet streams, storm tracks, and the Northern Annular Mode, making cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia more likely. SSWs affect the atmosphere above the stratosphere, producing widespread effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperatures, winds, neutral (nonionized) particles and electron densities, and electric fields. These effects span both hemispheres. Given their crucial role in the whole atmosphere, SSWs are also seen as a key process to analyze in climate change studies and subseasonal to seasonal prediction. This work reviews the current knowledge on the most important aspects of SSWs, from the historical background to dynamical processes, modeling, chemistry, and impact on other atmospheric layers.more » « less
-
Abstract The atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss remains a subject of much debate. Most studies have focused on the sea ice retreat in the Barents-Kara Seas and its troposphere-stratosphere influence. Here, we investigate the impact of large sea ice loss over the Chukchi-Bering Seas on the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) phenomenon during the easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation through idealized large-ensemble experiments based on a global atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Although culminating in autumn, the prescribed sea ice loss induces near-surface warming that persists into winter and deepens as the SSW develops. The resulting temperature contrasts foster a deep cyclonic circulation over the North Pacific, which elicits a strong upward wavenumber-2 activity into the stratosphere, reinforcing the climatological planetary wave pattern. While not affecting the SSW occurrence frequency, the amplified wave forcing in the stratosphere significantly increases the SSW duration and intensity, enhancing cold air outbreaks over the continents afterward.more » « less
-
Abstract. Stratospheric circulation is a critical part of the Arctic ozone cycle.Sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) manifest the strongest alterationof stratospheric dynamics. During SSWs, changes in planetary wavepropagation vigorously influence zonal mean zonal wind, temperature, andtracer concentrations in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. In thisstudy, we examine six persistent major SSWs from 2004 to 2020 using theModern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2(MERRA-2). Using the unique density of observations around the Greenlandsector at high latitudes, we perform comprehensive comparisons of high-latitude observations with the MERRA-2 ozone dataset during the six majorSSWs. Our results show that MERRA-2 captures the high variability of mid-stratospheric ozone fluctuations during SSWs over high latitudes. However,larger uncertainties are observed in the lower stratosphere and troposphere.The zonally averaged stratospheric ozone shows a dramatic increase of9 %–29 % in total column ozone (TCO) near the time of each SSW, which lastsup to 2 months. This study shows that the average shape of the Arcticpolar vortex before SSWs influences the geographical extent, timing, andmagnitude of ozone changes. The SSWs exhibit a more significant impact onozone over high northern latitudes when the average polar vortex is mostlyelongated as seen in 2009 and 2018 compared to the events in which the polarvortex is displaced towards Europe. Strong correlation (R2=90 %) isobserved between the magnitude of change in average equivalent potentialvorticity before and after SSWs and the associated averaged total columnozone changes over high latitudes. This paper investigates the differentterms of the ozone continuity equation using MERRA-2 circulation, whichemphasizes the key role of vertical advection in mid-stratospheric ozoneduring the SSWs and the magnified vertical advection in elongated vortexshape as seen in 2009 and 2018.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0136.1
