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1. Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0314722  

   Bajaj, Kushank; Mehrabi, Zia; Kastner, Thomas; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Müller, Christoph; Schwarzmüller, Florian; Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin (January 2025, PLOS ONE)

   Ali, Zakari (Ed.)

   The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate potential climate change impacts on national food supply, comparing impacts on domestic production alone (domestic production impacts) to impacts considering how climate change impacts production in all source regions (consumption impact). Under 2°C additional global mean warming over present day, our analysis highlights that climate impacts on national supply are aggravated for 53% high income and 56% upper medium income countries and mitigated for 60% low- and 71% low-medium income countries under consumption-based impacts compared to domestic impacts alone. We find that many countries are reliant on a few mega-exporters who mediate these climate impacts. Managing the risk of climate change for national food security requires a global perspective, considering not only how national production is affected, but also how climate change affects trading partners. 

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2. Evaluating sustainable development policies in rural coastal economies

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017835117  

   Lindsay, Amanda R.; Sanchirico, James N.; Gilliland, Ted E.; Ambo-Rappe, Rohani; Taylor, J. Edward; Krueck, Nils C.; Mumby, Peter J. (December 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Sustainable development (SD) policies targeting marine economic sectors, designed to alleviate poverty and conserve marine ecosystems, have proliferated in recent years. Many developing countries are providing poor fishing households with new fishing boats (fishing capital) that can be used further offshore as a means to improve incomes and relieve fishing pressure on nearshore fish stocks. These kinds of policies are a marine variant of traditional SD policies focused on agriculture. Here, we evaluate ex ante economic and environmental impacts of provisions of fishing and agricultural capital, with and without enforcement of fishing regulations that prohibit the use of larger vessels in nearshore habitats. Combining methods from development economics, natural resource economics, and marine ecology, we use a unique dataset and modeling framework to account for linkages between households, business sectors, markets, and local fish stocks. We show that the policies investing capital in local marine fisheries or agricultural sectors achieve income gains for targeted households, but knock-on effects lead to increased harvest of nearshore fish, making them unlikely to achieve conservation objectives in rural coastal economies. However, pairing an agriculture stimulus with increasing enforcement of existing fisheries’ regulations may lead to a win–win situation. While marine-based policies could be an important tool to achieve two of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (alleviate poverty and protect vulnerable marine resources), their success is by no means assured and requires consideration of land and marine socioeconomic linkages inherent in rural economies. 

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3. Floods and Children’s Education in Rural India

   https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.10  

   Khalid, Nazar; Behrman, Jere; Hannum, Emily; Thapa, Amrit (January 2024, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences)

   Floods cause extensive damage in high-income countries, including the United States, but problems are more severe in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that lack preventative and mitigating infrastructure. Marginalized children’s education in LMICs might be particularly vulnerable. Using the Indian Human Development Survey, we investigate flood exposure implications for the education of school-age rural children, paying particular attention to children from marginalized groups. Results show that lower-caste Hindu, Muslim, and poorer children with less-educated parents in agricultural households are more likely to experience flooding. Interactions between flooding and marginalization characteristics indicate that flood exposure is associated with disproportionately negative learning outcomes for girls and that economic resources may mitigate flood exposure effects on delayed school progress. While greater exposures for marginalized groups are concerning, the limited number and modest magnitudes of documented negative effect heterogeneities for marginalized children are somewhat better news. 

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4. The Socio-Cultural Benefits of Urban Agriculture: A Review of the Literature

   https://doi.org/10.3390/land11050622  

   Ilieva, Rositsa T.; Cohen, Nevin; Israel, Maggie; Specht, Kathrin; Fox-Kämper, Runrid; Fargue-Lelièvre, Agnès; Poniży, Lidia; Schoen, Victoria; Caputo, Silvio; Kirby, Caitlin K.; et al (May 2022, Land)

   Despite extensive literature on the socio-cultural services of urban open spaces, the role of food-producing spaces has not received sufficient attention. This hampers advocacy for preserving and growing urban agricultural activities, often dismissed on justifications that their contributions to overall food supply are negligible. To understand how the social benefits of urban agriculture have been measured, we conducted a systematic review of 272 peer-reviewed publications, which drew on insights from urban agriculture sites in 57 different countries. Through content analysis, we investigated socio-cultural benefits in four spheres: engaged and cohesive communities, health and well-being, economic opportunities, and education. The analysis revealed growth in research on the social impacts of gardens and farms, with most studies measuring the effects on community cohesion and engagement, followed by increased availability and consumption of fruits and vegetables associated with reduced food insecurity and better health. Fewer studies assessed the impact of urban farming on educational and economic outcomes. Quantifying the multiple ways in which urban agriculture provides benefits to people will empower planners and the private sector to justify future investments. These findings are also informative for research theorizing cities as socio-ecological systems and broader efforts to measure the benefits of urban agriculture, in its many forms. 

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5. The Role and Use of Mathematical Programming in Agricultural, Natural Resource, and Climate Change Analysis

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-101422-041745  

   Fei, Chengcheng J.; McCarl, Bruce A. (October 2023, Annual Review of Resource Economics)

   Climate change undeniably impacts agriculture and natural resources, enterprises and markets. For informed decision making, there is a need for information on climate change adaptation possibilities and mitigation alternatives. Mathematical programming has been used to address the economic aspects of such questions and allows analysis as climate change moves the environment into previously unobserved conditions. It allows us to model spatial and dynamic features of the issue and analyze heretofore unobserved adaptation and mitigation possibilities. This review provides an overview of and references for modeling techniques, conceptual issues, and major assumptions involved with using mathematical programming as a climate change economic analyzing engine, along with a brief comparison with other methods. We also review a number of studies applying mathematical programming to examine climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation issues in the agricultural and natural resources arena. Finally, we present a very brief discussion on research needs. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Resource Economics, Volume 15 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

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