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1. Elevation Changes in Restored Marshes at Poplar Island, Chesapeake Bay, MD: II. Modeling the Importance of Marsh Development Time

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-024-01342-x  

   Morris, James T. ; Staver, Lorie W. ( April 2024 , Estuaries and Coasts)

   Tidal marshes in the Chesapeake Bay are vulnerable to the accelerating rate of sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. Restored and created marshes face the same risks as natural marshes, and their resilience to SLR may depend upon appropriate design and implementation. Here, the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) was used to assess the resilience of tidal marshes at the Paul S. Sarbanes Ecosystem Restoration Project at Poplar Island (PI) in mid-Chesapeake Bay, MD, where dredged material from navigation channels is being used to create new tidal marshes planted withSpartina alterniflorain the low marsh andS. patensin the high marsh. The site is microtidal with low inorganic sediment inputs, where the rate of marsh elevation change is dominated by the production of organic matter and, therefore, is proportional to net ecosystem production (NEP). The model demonstrated the importance of marsh development for surface elevation gain. In created marshes, the buildout of belowground biomass adds volume and results in faster growth of marsh elevation, but the gains slow as the marsh matures. Elevation gain is the lessor of the recalcitrant fraction of NEP sequestered in sediment or the rate of increase in accommodation space. Marshes can keep up with and fill accommodation space with sequestered NEP up to a tipping point determined by the rate of SLR. The PI low marsh platform was forecasted to drown in about 43 years after construction at the current rate of SLR. Marsh loss can be mitigated by periodic thin layer placement (TLP) of sediment. CWEM was used to simulate PI marsh responses to different TLP strategies and showed that there is an optimal design that will maximize carbon sequestration and resilience depending on the trajectory of mean sea level.

    

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2. Temporal variability in soil organic matter accretion rates in coastal deltaic wetlands under changing depositional environments

   https://doi.org/10.1002/saj2.20515  

   Sapkota, Yadav ; Xu, Kehui ; Maiti, Kanchan ; Inglett, Patrick ; White, John R. ( February 2023 , Soil Science Society of America Journal)

   The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain experiences high relative sea level rise, limited sediment supply, and high marsh edge erosion, leading to the substantial coastal wetland and stored soil organic matter (SOM) loss. The objective of this study was to understand the SOM accumulation rates over the past 1000 years related to the changes in the depositional environment in these highly eroding coastal wetlands. Soil cores (2 m) were collected from four sites in Barataria Basin, LA and analyzed for proportion of organic and mineral matter, total C, N, P, particle size, and stable isotopic composition (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N), as well as¹⁴C and¹³⁷Cs dating. The soil carbon stock in the 2 m depth (62.4 ± 2 kg m⁻²) was approximately 88% greater than the carbon stock in just the 1 m depth (33.1 ± 0.6 kg m⁻²) indicating a need for considering deeper soil profiles (up to 2 m) to estimate blue carbon stock in deltaic environments. The average vertical accretion rate for Barataria Basin was 8.1 ± 0.6 mm year⁻¹over 50 years. The long‐term (1000‐year time scale) C accumulation rate (39 g C m⁻²year⁻¹) was ∼14% of the short‐term accumulation rate (254 ± 19 g C m⁻²year⁻¹). Wetlands in Barataria Basin started as fresh marsh and transitioned over time to intermediate to brackish. These marshes were able to maintain relative elevation through the accumulation of organic matter and mud despite high relative rates of sea‐level rise. However, the high rates of edge erosion may limit these marshes to continue to sequester atmospheric carbon under accelerating sea level in the absence of restoration efforts.

    

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3. Localized Scenarios and Latitudinal Patterns of Vertical and Lateral Resilience of Tidal Marshes to Sea‐Level Rise in the Contiguous United States

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001804  

   Holmquist, James R. ; Brown, Lauren N. ; MacDonald, Glen M. ( June 2021 , Earth's Future)

   Coastal wetlands have two dimensions of vulnerability to sea‐level rise (SLR), a vertical one, in cases where SLR outpaces their capacity to vertically accrete, and a lateral one, in cases where they are restricted from migrating inland by topography and land use. We conducted a meta‐analysis of accretion rates, standardized our analysis by using only¹³⁷Cs based estimates, and used model intercomparison to generate a vertical resilience index, a function of local SLR, tidal range, and tidal elevation category for the tidal wetlands of the contiguous US. We paired the vertical resilience index with a lateral resilience index made up of elevation, water level, and land cover maps, then projected them both into the future using localized SLR scenarios. At the regional scale, the vertical resilience index predicts changes from marsh aggradation to submergence for the coastal US Mid‐Atlantic, Southeast, and portions of the Northeast by 2100. At the sub‐regional scale, there is a geographic tradeoff between vertical and lateral resilience with more northerly wetlands vulnerable to the lack of suitable proportional area to migrate into, and more southerly wetlands vulnerable to accretion deficit. We estimate between 43% and 48% of the existing contiguous US wetland area, almost entirely located in watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico and Mid‐Atlantic coasts, is subject to both vertical and lateral limitations. These vertical and lateral resilience indices could help direct future research, planning, and mitigation efforts at a national scale, as well as supplement more processed informed approaches by local planners and practitioners.

    

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4. Modeling net ecosystem carbon balance and loss in coastal wetlands exposed to sea‐level rise and saltwater intrusion

   https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2702  

   Ishtiaq, Khandker S. ; Troxler, Tiffany G. ; Lamb‐Wotton, Lukas ; Wilson, Benjamin J. ; Charles, Sean P. ; Davis, Stephen E. ; Kominoski, John S. ; Rudnick, David T. ; Sklar, Fred H. ( January 2022 , Ecological Applications)

   Coastal wetlands are globally important stores of carbon (C). However, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), increased saltwater intrusion, and modified freshwater discharge can contribute to the collapse of peat marshes, converting coastal peatlands into open water. Applying results from multiple experiments from sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense)-dominated freshwater and brackish water marshes in the Florida Coastal Everglades, we developed a system-level mechanistic peat elevation model (EvPEM). We applied the model to simulate net ecosystem C balance (NECB) and peat elevation in response to elevated salinity under inundation and drought exposure. Using a mass C balance approach, we estimated net gain in C and corresponding export of aquatic fluxes ( ) in the freshwater marsh under ambient conditions (NECB = 1119 ± 229 gC m−2 year−1; FAQ = 317 ± 186 gC m−2 year−1). In contrast, the brackish water marsh exhibited substantial peat loss and aquatic C export with ambient (NECB = −366 ± 15 gC m−2 year−1; FAQ = 311 ± 30 gC m−2 year−1) and elevated salinity (NECB = −594 ± 94 gC m−2 year−1; FAQ = 729 ± 142 gC m−2 year−1) under extended exposed conditions. Further, mass balance suggests a considerable decline in soil C and corresponding elevation loss with elevated salinity and seasonal dry-down. Applying EvPEM, we developed critical marsh net primary productivity (NPP) thresholds as a function of salinity to simulate accumulating, steady-state, and collapsing peat elevations. The optimization showed that ~150–1070 gC m−2 year−1 NPP could support a stable peat elevation (elevation change ≈ SLR), with the corresponding salinity ranging from 1 to 20 ppt under increasing inundation levels. The C budgeting and modeling illustrate the impacts of saltwater intrusion, inundation, and seasonal dry-down and reduce uncertainties in understanding the fate of coastal peat wetlands with SLR and freshwater restoration. The modeling results provide management targets for hydrologic restoration based on the ecological conditions needed to reduce the vulnerability of the Everglades' peat marshes to collapse. The approach can be extended to other coastal peatlands to quantify C loss and improve understanding of the influence of the biological controls on wetland C storage changes for coastal management. 

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5. Climate Change Driving Widespread Loss of Coastal Forested Wetlands Throughout the North American Coastal Plain

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00686-w  

   White, Elliott E. ; Ury, Emily A. ; Bernhardt, Emily S. ; Yang, Xi ( August 2021 , Ecosystems)

   Coastal forested wetlands support many endemic species, sequester substantial carbon stocks, and have been reduced in extent due to historic drainage and agricultural expansion. Many of these unique coastal ecosystems have been drained, while those that remain are now threatened by saltwater intrusion and sea level rise in hydrologically modified coastal landscapes. Several recent studies have documented rapid and accelerating losses of coastal forested wetlands in small areas of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America, but the full extent of loss across North America’s Coastal Plain (NACP) has not been quantified. We used classified satellite imagery to document a net loss of  13,682 km2 (8%) of forested coastal wetlands across the NACP between 1996 and 2016. Most forests transitioned to scrub-shrub (53%) and marsh habitats (24%). Even within protected areas, we measured substantial rates of wetland deforestation and significant fragmentation of forested wetland habitats. Variation in the rate of sea level rise, the number of tropical storm landings, and the average elevation of coastal watersheds explained about 78% of the variation in coastal wetland deforestation extent along the south Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The rate of coastal forest loss within the NACP (684 km2/y) exceeds the recent estimate of global losses of coastal mangroves (210 km2/y). At the current rate of deforestation, in the absence of widespread protection or restoration efforts, coastal forested wetlands may not persist into the next century. 

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