skip to main content


Title: Machine-Learning-Based Online Transient Analysis via Iterative Computation of Generator Dynamics
Transient analysis is vital to the planning and operation of electric power systems. Traditional transient analysis utilizes numerical methods to solve the differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) to compute the trajectories of quantities in the grid. For this, various numerical integration methods have been developed and used for decades. On the other hand, solving the DAEs for a relatively large system such as power grids is computationally intensive and is particularly challenging to perform online. In this paper, a novel machine learning (ML) based approach is proposed and developed to predict post-contingency trajectories of a generator in the time domain. The training data are generated by using an off-line simulation platform considering random disturbance occurrences and clearing times. As a proof-of-concept study, the proposed ML-based approach is applied to a single generator. A Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network representation of the selected generator is successfully trained to capture the dependencies of its dynamics across a sufficiently long time span. In the online assessment stage, the LSTM network predicts the entire post-contingency transient trajectories given initial conditions of the power system triggered by system changes due to fault scenarios. Numerical experiments in the New York/New England 16-machine 86-bus power system show that the trained LSTM network accurately predicts the generator’s transient trajectories. Compared to existing numerical integration methods, the post-disturbance trajectories of generator’s dynamic states are computed much faster using the trained predictor, offering great promises for significantly accelerating both offline and online transient studies.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2025152
NSF-PAR ID:
10297996
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm)
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1 to 6
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Obeid, Iyad Selesnick (Ed.)
    Electroencephalography (EEG) is a popular clinical monitoring tool used for diagnosing brain-related disorders such as epilepsy [1]. As monitoring EEGs in a critical-care setting is an expensive and tedious task, there is a great interest in developing real-time EEG monitoring tools to improve patient care quality and efficiency [2]. However, clinicians require automatic seizure detection tools that provide decisions with at least 75% sensitivity and less than 1 false alarm (FA) per 24 hours [3]. Some commercial tools recently claim to reach such performance levels, including the Olympic Brainz Monitor [4] and Persyst 14 [5]. In this abstract, we describe our efforts to transform a high-performance offline seizure detection system [3] into a low latency real-time or online seizure detection system. An overview of the system is shown in Figure 1. The main difference between an online versus offline system is that an online system should always be causal and has minimum latency which is often defined by domain experts. The offline system, shown in Figure 2, uses two phases of deep learning models with postprocessing [3]. The channel-based long short term memory (LSTM) model (Phase 1 or P1) processes linear frequency cepstral coefficients (LFCC) [6] features from each EEG channel separately. We use the hypotheses generated by the P1 model and create additional features that carry information about the detected events and their confidence. The P2 model uses these additional features and the LFCC features to learn the temporal and spatial aspects of the EEG signals using a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) and LSTM model. Finally, Phase 3 aggregates the results from both P1 and P2 before applying a final postprocessing step. The online system implements Phase 1 by taking advantage of the Linux piping mechanism, multithreading techniques, and multi-core processors. To convert Phase 1 into an online system, we divide the system into five major modules: signal preprocessor, feature extractor, event decoder, postprocessor, and visualizer. The system reads 0.1-second frames from each EEG channel and sends them to the feature extractor and the visualizer. The feature extractor generates LFCC features in real time from the streaming EEG signal. Next, the system computes seizure and background probabilities using a channel-based LSTM model and applies a postprocessor to aggregate the detected events across channels. The system then displays the EEG signal and the decisions simultaneously using a visualization module. The online system uses C++, Python, TensorFlow, and PyQtGraph in its implementation. The online system accepts streamed EEG data sampled at 250 Hz as input. The system begins processing the EEG signal by applying a TCP montage [8]. Depending on the type of the montage, the EEG signal can have either 22 or 20 channels. To enable the online operation, we send 0.1-second (25 samples) length frames from each channel of the streamed EEG signal to the feature extractor and the visualizer. Feature extraction is performed sequentially on each channel. The signal preprocessor writes the sample frames into two streams to facilitate these modules. In the first stream, the feature extractor receives the signals using stdin. In parallel, as a second stream, the visualizer shares a user-defined file with the signal preprocessor. This user-defined file holds raw signal information as a buffer for the visualizer. The signal preprocessor writes into the file while the visualizer reads from it. Reading and writing into the same file poses a challenge. The visualizer can start reading while the signal preprocessor is writing into it. To resolve this issue, we utilize a file locking mechanism in the signal preprocessor and visualizer. Each of the processes temporarily locks the file, performs its operation, releases the lock, and tries to obtain the lock after a waiting period. The file locking mechanism ensures that only one process can access the file by prohibiting other processes from reading or writing while one process is modifying the file [9]. The feature extractor uses circular buffers to save 0.3 seconds or 75 samples from each channel for extracting 0.2-second or 50-sample long center-aligned windows. The module generates 8 absolute LFCC features where the zeroth cepstral coefficient is replaced by a temporal domain energy term. For extracting the rest of the features, three pipelines are used. The differential energy feature is calculated in a 0.9-second absolute feature window with a frame size of 0.1 seconds. The difference between the maximum and minimum temporal energy terms is calculated in this range. Then, the first derivative or the delta features are calculated using another 0.9-second window. Finally, the second derivative or delta-delta features are calculated using a 0.3-second window [6]. The differential energy for the delta-delta features is not included. In total, we extract 26 features from the raw sample windows which add 1.1 seconds of delay to the system. We used the Temple University Hospital Seizure Database (TUSZ) v1.2.1 for developing the online system [10]. The statistics for this dataset are shown in Table 1. A channel-based LSTM model was trained using the features derived from the train set using the online feature extractor module. A window-based normalization technique was applied to those features. In the offline model, we scale features by normalizing using the maximum absolute value of a channel [11] before applying a sliding window approach. Since the online system has access to a limited amount of data, we normalize based on the observed window. The model uses the feature vectors with a frame size of 1 second and a window size of 7 seconds. We evaluated the model using the offline P1 postprocessor to determine the efficacy of the delayed features and the window-based normalization technique. As shown by the results of experiments 1 and 4 in Table 2, these changes give us a comparable performance to the offline model. The online event decoder module utilizes this trained model for computing probabilities for the seizure and background classes. These posteriors are then postprocessed to remove spurious detections. The online postprocessor receives and saves 8 seconds of class posteriors in a buffer for further processing. It applies multiple heuristic filters (e.g., probability threshold) to make an overall decision by combining events across the channels. These filters evaluate the average confidence, the duration of a seizure, and the channels where the seizures were observed. The postprocessor delivers the label and confidence to the visualizer. The visualizer starts to display the signal as soon as it gets access to the signal file, as shown in Figure 1 using the “Signal File” and “Visualizer” blocks. Once the visualizer receives the label and confidence for the latest epoch from the postprocessor, it overlays the decision and color codes that epoch. The visualizer uses red for seizure with the label SEIZ and green for the background class with the label BCKG. Once the streaming finishes, the system saves three files: a signal file in which the sample frames are saved in the order they were streamed, a time segmented event (TSE) file with the overall decisions and confidences, and a hypotheses (HYP) file that saves the label and confidence for each epoch. The user can plot the signal and decisions using the signal and HYP files with only the visualizer by enabling appropriate options. For comparing the performance of different stages of development, we used the test set of TUSZ v1.2.1 database. It contains 1015 EEG records of varying duration. The any-overlap performance [12] of the overall system shown in Figure 2 is 40.29% sensitivity with 5.77 FAs per 24 hours. For comparison, the previous state-of-the-art model developed on this database performed at 30.71% sensitivity with 6.77 FAs per 24 hours [3]. The individual performances of the deep learning phases are as follows: Phase 1’s (P1) performance is 39.46% sensitivity and 11.62 FAs per 24 hours, and Phase 2 detects seizures with 41.16% sensitivity and 11.69 FAs per 24 hours. We trained an LSTM model with the delayed features and the window-based normalization technique for developing the online system. Using the offline decoder and postprocessor, the model performed at 36.23% sensitivity with 9.52 FAs per 24 hours. The trained model was then evaluated with the online modules. The current performance of the overall online system is 45.80% sensitivity with 28.14 FAs per 24 hours. Table 2 summarizes the performances of these systems. The performance of the online system deviates from the offline P1 model because the online postprocessor fails to combine the events as the seizure probability fluctuates during an event. The modules in the online system add a total of 11.1 seconds of delay for processing each second of the data, as shown in Figure 3. In practice, we also count the time for loading the model and starting the visualizer block. When we consider these facts, the system consumes 15 seconds to display the first hypothesis. The system detects seizure onsets with an average latency of 15 seconds. Implementing an automatic seizure detection model in real time is not trivial. We used a variety of techniques such as the file locking mechanism, multithreading, circular buffers, real-time event decoding, and signal-decision plotting to realize the system. A video demonstrating the system is available at: https://www.isip.piconepress.com/projects/nsf_pfi_tt/resources/videos/realtime_eeg_analysis/v2.5.1/video_2.5.1.mp4. The final conference submission will include a more detailed analysis of the online performance of each module. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Research reported in this publication was most recently supported by the National Science Foundation Partnership for Innovation award number IIP-1827565 and the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Universal Research Enhancement Program (PA CURE). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official views of any of these organizations. REFERENCES [1] A. Craik, Y. He, and J. L. Contreras-Vidal, “Deep learning for electroencephalogram (EEG) classification tasks: a review,” J. Neural Eng., vol. 16, no. 3, p. 031001, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-2552/ab0ab5. [2] A. C. Bridi, T. Q. Louro, and R. C. L. Da Silva, “Clinical Alarms in intensive care: implications of alarm fatigue for the safety of patients,” Rev. Lat. Am. Enfermagem, vol. 22, no. 6, p. 1034, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1590/0104-1169.3488.2513. [3] M. Golmohammadi, V. Shah, I. Obeid, and J. Picone, “Deep Learning Approaches for Automatic Seizure Detection from Scalp Electroencephalograms,” in Signal Processing in Medicine and Biology: Emerging Trends in Research and Applications, 1st ed., I. Obeid, I. Selesnick, and J. Picone, Eds. New York, New York, USA: Springer, 2020, pp. 233–274. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36844-9_8. [4] “CFM Olympic Brainz Monitor.” [Online]. Available: https://newborncare.natus.com/products-services/newborn-care-products/newborn-brain-injury/cfm-olympic-brainz-monitor. [Accessed: 17-Jul-2020]. [5] M. L. Scheuer, S. B. Wilson, A. Antony, G. Ghearing, A. Urban, and A. I. Bagic, “Seizure Detection: Interreader Agreement and Detection Algorithm Assessments Using a Large Dataset,” J. Clin. Neurophysiol., 2020. https://doi.org/10.1097/WNP.0000000000000709. [6] A. Harati, M. Golmohammadi, S. Lopez, I. Obeid, and J. Picone, “Improved EEG Event Classification Using Differential Energy,” in Proceedings of the IEEE Signal Processing in Medicine and Biology Symposium, 2015, pp. 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1109/SPMB.2015.7405421. [7] V. Shah, C. Campbell, I. Obeid, and J. Picone, “Improved Spatio-Temporal Modeling in Automated Seizure Detection using Channel-Dependent Posteriors,” Neurocomputing, 2021. [8] W. Tatum, A. Husain, S. Benbadis, and P. Kaplan, Handbook of EEG Interpretation. New York City, New York, USA: Demos Medical Publishing, 2007. [9] D. P. Bovet and C. Marco, Understanding the Linux Kernel, 3rd ed. O’Reilly Media, Inc., 2005. https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/understanding-the-linux/0596005652/. [10] V. Shah et al., “The Temple University Hospital Seizure Detection Corpus,” Front. Neuroinform., vol. 12, pp. 1–6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.3389/fninf.2018.00083. [11] F. Pedregosa et al., “Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python,” J. Mach. Learn. Res., vol. 12, pp. 2825–2830, 2011. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1953048.2078195. [12] J. Gotman, D. Flanagan, J. Zhang, and B. Rosenblatt, “Automatic seizure detection in the newborn: Methods and initial evaluation,” Electroencephalogr. Clin. Neurophysiol., vol. 103, no. 3, pp. 356–362, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-4694(97)00003-9. 
    more » « less
  2. Failure prognostics is the process of predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of machine components, which is vital for the predictive maintenance of industrial machinery. This paper presents a new deep learning approach for failure prognostics of rolling element bearings based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) predictor trained simultaneously within a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) architecture. The LSTM predictor takes the current and past observations of a well-defined health index as an input, uses those to forecast the future degradation trajectory, and then derives the RUL. Our proposed approach has three unique features: (1) Defining the bearing failure threshold by adopting an International Organization of Standardization (ISO) standard, making the approach industry-relevant; (2) Employing a GAN-based data augmentation technique to improve the accuracy and robustness of RUL prediction in cases where the deep learning model has access to only a small amount of training data; (3) Integrating the training process of the LSTM predictor within the GAN architecture. A joint training approach is utilized to ensure that the LSTM predictor model learns both the original and artificially generated data to capture the degradation trajectories. We utilize a publicly available accelerated run-to-failure dataset of rolling element bearings to assess the performance of the proposed approach. Results of a five-fold cross-validation study show that the integration of the LSTM predictor with GAN helps to decrease the average RUL prediction error by 29% over a simple LSTM model without GAN implementation. 
    more » « less
  3. In this work, we present a novel approach to real-time tracking of full-chip heatmaps for commercial off-the-shelf microprocessors based on machine-learning. The proposed post-silicon approach, named RealMaps, only uses the existing embedded temperature sensors and workload-independent utilization information, which are available in real-time. Moreover, RealMaps does not require any knowledge of the proprietary design details or manufacturing process-specific information of the chip. Consequently, the methods presented in this work can be implemented by either the original chip manufacturer or a third party alike, and is aimed at supplementing, rather than substituting, the temperature data sensed from the existing embedded sensors. The new approach starts with offline acquisition of accurate spatial and temporal heatmaps using an infrared thermal imaging setup while nominal working conditions are maintained on the chip. To build the dynamic thermal model, a temporal-aware long-short-term-memory (LSTM) neutral network is trained with system-level features such as chip frequency, instruction counts, and other high-level performance metrics as inputs. Instead of a pixel-wise heatmap estimation, we perform 2D spatial discrete cosine transformation (DCT) on the heatmaps so that they can be expressed with just a few dominant DCT coefficients. This allows for the model to be built to estimate just the dominant spatial features of the 2D heatmaps, rather than the entire heatmap images, making it significantly more efficient. Experimental results from two commercial chips show that RealMaps can estimate the full-chip heatmaps with 0.9C and 1.2C root-mean-square-error respectively and take only 0.4ms for each inference which suits well for real-time use. Compared to the state of the art pre-silicon approach, RealMaps shows similar accuracy, but with much less computational cost. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Objective . Neural decoding is an important tool in neural engineering and neural data analysis. Of various machine learning algorithms adopted for neural decoding, the recently introduced deep learning is promising to excel. Therefore, we sought to apply deep learning to decode movement trajectories from the activity of motor cortical neurons. Approach . In this paper, we assessed the performance of deep learning methods in three different decoding schemes, concurrent, time-delay, and spatiotemporal. In the concurrent decoding scheme where the input to the network is the neural activity coincidental to the movement, deep learning networks including artificial neural network (ANN) and long-short term memory (LSTM) were applied to decode movement and compared with traditional machine learning algorithms. Both ANN and LSTM were further evaluated in the time-delay decoding scheme in which temporal delays are allowed between neural signals and movements. Lastly, in the spatiotemporal decoding scheme, we trained convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract movement information from images representing the spatial arrangement of neurons, their activity, and connectomes (i.e. the relative strengths of connectivity between neurons) and combined CNN and ANN to develop a hybrid spatiotemporal network. To reveal the input features of the CNN in the hybrid network that deep learning discovered for movement decoding, we performed a sensitivity analysis and identified specific regions in the spatial domain. Main results . Deep learning networks (ANN and LSTM) outperformed traditional machine learning algorithms in the concurrent decoding scheme. The results of ANN and LSTM in the time-delay decoding scheme showed that including neural data from time points preceding movement enabled decoders to perform more robustly when the temporal relationship between the neural activity and movement dynamically changes over time. In the spatiotemporal decoding scheme, the hybrid spatiotemporal network containing the concurrent ANN decoder outperformed single-network concurrent decoders. Significance . Taken together, our study demonstrates that deep learning could become a robust and effective method for the neural decoding of behavior. 
    more » « less
  5. Predictive VM (Virtual Machine) auto-scaling is a promising technique to optimize cloud applications’ operating costs and performance. Understanding the job arrival rate is crucial for accurately predicting future changes in cloud workloads and proactively provisioning and de-provisioning VMs for hosting the applications. However, developing a model that accurately predicts cloud workload changes is extremely challenging due to the dynamic nature of cloud workloads. Long- Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) models have been developed for cloud workload prediction. Unfortunately, the state-of-the-art LSTM model leverages recurrences to predict, which naturally adds complexity and increases the inference overhead as input sequences grow longer. To develop a cloud workload prediction model with high accuracy and low inference overhead, this work presents a novel time-series forecasting model called WGAN-gp Transformer, inspired by the Transformer network and improved Wasserstein-GANs. The proposed method adopts a Transformer network as a generator and a multi-layer perceptron as a critic. The extensive evaluations with real-world workload traces show WGAN- gp Transformer achieves 5× faster inference time with up to 5.1% higher prediction accuracy against the state-of-the-art. We also apply WGAN-gp Transformer to auto-scaling mechanisms on Google cloud platforms, and the WGAN-gp Transformer-based auto-scaling mechanism outperforms the LSTM-based mechanism by significantly reducing VM over-provisioning and under-provisioning rates. 
    more » « less