- Award ID(s):
- 2029661
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10362773
- Journal Name:
- International Conference on Privacy in Statistical Databases
- Page Range or eLocation-ID:
- 361--374
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Objective Supporting public health research and the public’s situational awareness during a pandemic requires continuous dissemination of infectious disease surveillance data. Legislation, such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 and recent state-level regulations, permits sharing deidentified person-level data; however, current deidentification approaches are limited. Namely, they are inefficient, relying on retrospective disclosure risk assessments, and do not flex with changes in infection rates or population demographics over time. In this paper, we introduce a framework to dynamically adapt deidentification for near-real time sharing of person-level surveillance data. Materials and Methods The framework leverages a simulation mechanism, capable of application at any geographic level, to forecast the reidentification risk of sharing the data under a wide range of generalization policies. The estimates inform weekly, prospective policy selection to maintain the proportion of records corresponding to a group size less than 11 (PK11) at or below 0.1. Fixing the policy at the start of each week facilitates timely dataset updates and supports sharing granular date information. We use August 2020 through October 2021 case data from Johns Hopkins University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness in maintaining the PK11 thresholdmore »
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Background Significant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities. Objective We aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties. Methods We developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions. Results Predicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on averagemore »
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Background Conventional diagnosis of COVID-19 with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing (hereafter, PCR) is associated with prolonged time to diagnosis and significant costs to run the test. The SARS-CoV-2 virus might lead to characteristic patterns in the results of widely available, routine blood tests that could be identified with machine learning methodologies. Machine learning modalities integrating findings from these common laboratory test results might accelerate ruling out COVID-19 in emergency department patients. Objective We sought to develop (ie, train and internally validate with cross-validation techniques) and externally validate a machine learning model to rule out COVID 19 using only routine blood tests among adults in emergency departments. Methods Using clinical data from emergency departments (EDs) from 66 US hospitals before the pandemic (before the end of December 2019) or during the pandemic (March-July 2020), we included patients aged ≥20 years in the study time frame. We excluded those with missing laboratory results. Model training used 2183 PCR-confirmed cases from 43 hospitals during the pandemic; negative controls were 10,000 prepandemic patients from the same hospitals. External validation used 23 hospitals with 1020 PCR-confirmed cases and 171,734 prepandemic negative controls. The main outcome was COVID 19 status predicted using same-daymore »
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The contributions of asymptomatic infections to herd immunity and community transmission are key to the resurgence and control of COVID-19, but are difficult to estimate using current models that ignore changes in testing capacity. Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, we show that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, ranging from 13 to 18%, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed. Asymptomatic infections contribute substantially to herd immunity, and to community transmission together with presymptomatic ones. If asymptomatic infections transmit at similar rates as symptomatic ones, the overall reproductive number across all classes is larger than often assumed, with estimates ranging from 3.2 to 4.4. If they transmit poorly, then symptomatic cases have a larger reproductive number ranging from 3.9 to 8.1. Even in this regime, presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases together comprise at least 50% of the force of infection at the outbreak peak. We find no regimes in which all infection subpopulations have reproductive numbers lower than three. These findings elucidate the uncertainty that current case and serology data cannot resolve, despite consideration of different model structures. They also emphasize howmore »
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