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1. Understanding temporal variability across trophic levels and spatial scales in freshwater ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4219  

   Siqueira, Tadeu; Hawkins, Charles P.; Olden, Julian D.; Tonkin, Jonathan; Comte, Lise; Saito, Victor S.; Anderson, Thomas L.; Barbosa, Gedimar P.; Bonada, Núria; Bonecker, Claudia C.; et al (December 2023, Ecology)

   Abstract A tenet of ecology is that temporal variability in ecological structure and processes tends to decrease with increasing spatial scales (from locales to regions) and levels of biological organization (from populations to communities). However, patterns in temporal variability across trophic levels and the mechanisms that produce them remain poorly understood. Here we analyzed the abundance time series of spatially structured communities (i.e., metacommunities) spanning basal resources to top predators from 355 freshwater sites across three continents. Specifically, we used a hierarchical partitioning method to disentangle the propagation of temporal variability in abundance across spatial scales and trophic levels. We then used structural equation modeling to determine if the strength and direction of relationships between temporal variability, synchrony, biodiversity, and environmental and spatial settings depended on trophic level and spatial scale. We found that temporal variability in abundance decreased from producers to tertiary consumers but did so mainly at the local scale. Species population synchrony within sites increased with trophic level, whereas synchrony among communities decreased. At the local scale, temporal variability in precipitation and species diversity were associated with population variability (linear partial coefficient, β = 0.23) and population synchrony (β = −0.39) similarly across trophic levels, respectively. At the regional scale, community synchrony was not related to climatic or spatial predictors, but the strength of relationships between metacommunity variability and community synchrony decreased systematically from top predators (β = 0.73) to secondary consumers (β = 0.54), to primary consumers (β = 0.30) to producers (β = 0). Our results suggest that mobile predators may often stabilize metacommunities by buffering variability that originates at the base of food webs. This finding illustrates that the trophic structure of metacommunities, which integrates variation in organismal body size and its correlates, should be considered when investigating ecological stability in natural systems. More broadly, our work advances the notion that temporal stability is an emergent property of ecosystems that may be threatened in complex ways by biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation. 

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2. Diversity–stability relationships across organism groups and ecosystem types become decoupled across spatial scales

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4136  

   Wisnoski, Nathan I.; Andrade, Riley; Castorani, Max C. N.; Catano, Christopher P.; Compagnoni, Aldo; Lamy, Thomas; Lany, Nina K.; Marazzi, Luca; Record, Sydne; Smith, Annie C.; et al (July 2023, Ecology)

   Abstract The relationship between biodiversity and stability, or its inverse, temporal variability, is multidimensional and complex. Temporal variability in aggregate properties, like total biomass or abundance, is typically lower in communities with higher species diversity (i.e., the diversity–stability relationship [DSR]). At broader spatial extents, regional‐scale aggregate variability is also lower with higher regional diversity (in plant systems) and with lower spatial synchrony. However, focusing exclusively on aggregate properties of communities may overlook potentially destabilizing compositional shifts. It is not yet clear how diversity is related to different components of variability across spatial scales, nor whether regional DSRs emerge across a broad range of organisms and ecosystem types. To test these questions, we compiled a large collection of long‐term metacommunity data spanning a wide range of taxonomic groups (e.g., birds, fish, plants, invertebrates) and ecosystem types (e.g., deserts, forests, oceans). We applied a newly developed quantitative framework for jointly analyzing aggregate and compositional variability across scales. We quantified DSRs for composition and aggregate variability in local communities and metacommunities. At the local scale, more diverse communities were less variable, but this effect was stronger for aggregate than compositional properties. We found no stabilizing effect of γ‐diversity on metacommunity variability, but β‐diversity played a strong role in reducing compositional spatial synchrony, which reduced regional variability. Spatial synchrony differed among taxa, suggesting differences in stabilization by spatial processes. However, metacommunity variability was more strongly driven by local variability than by spatial synchrony. Across a broader range of taxa, our results suggest that high γ‐diversity does not consistently stabilize aggregate properties at regional scales without sufficient spatial β‐diversity to reduce spatial synchrony. 

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3. Climate change could amplify weak synchrony in large marine ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2404155121  

   Karatayev, Vadim_A; Munch, Stephan_B; Rogers, Tanya_L; Reuman, Daniel_C (December 2024, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Climate change is increasing the frequency of large-scale, extreme environmental events and flattening environmental gradients. Whether such changes will cause spatially synchronous, large-scale population declines depends on mechanisms that limit metapopulation synchrony, thereby promoting rescue effects and stability. Using long-term data and empirical dynamic models, we quantified spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, spatial heterogeneity in environmental responses, and environmental gradients to assess their role in inhibiting synchrony across 36 marine fish and invertebrate species. Overall, spatial heterogeneity in population dynamics was as important as environmental drivers in explaining population variation. This heterogeneity leads to weak synchrony in the California Current Ecosystem, where populations exhibit diverse responses to shared, large-scale environmental change. In contrast, in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem, gradients in average environmental conditions among locations, filtered through nonlinear environmental response curves, limit synchrony. Simulations predict that environmental gradients and response diversity will continue to inhibit synchrony even if large-scale environmental extremes become common. However, if environmental gradients weaken, synchrony and periods of large-scale population decline may rise sharply among commercially important species on the Northeast Shelf. Our approach thus allows ecologists to 1) quantify how differences among local communities underpin landscape-scale resilience and 2) identify the kinds of future climatic changes most likely to amplify synchrony and erode species stability. 

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4. Synchrony matters more than species richness in plant community stability at a global scale

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920405117  

   Valencia, Enrique; de Bello, Francesco; Galland, Thomas; Adler, Peter B.; Lepš, Jan; E-Vojtkó, Anna; van Klink, Roel; Carmona, Carlos P.; Danihelka, Jiří; Dengler, Jürgen; et al (September 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability. 

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5. Foundation species promote community stability by increasing diversity in a giant kelp forest

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2987  

   Lamy, Thomas; Koenigs, Craig; Holbrook, Sally J.; Miller, Robert J.; Stier, Adrian C.; Reed, Daniel C. (February 2020, Ecology)

   Abstract Foundation species structure communities, promote biodiversity, and stabilize ecosystem processes by creating locally stable environmental conditions. Despite their critical importance, the role of foundation species in stabilizing natural communities has seldom been quantified. In theory, the stability of a foundation species should promote community stability by enhancing species richness, altering the population fluctuations of individual species, or both. Here we tested the hypothesis that the stability of a marine foundation species, the giant kelpMacrocystis pyrifera, increased the stability of the aggregate biomass of a phylogenetically diverse assemblage of understory algae and sessile invertebrates that compete for space beneath the giant kelp canopy. To achieve this goal, we analyzed an 18‐yr time series of the biomass of giant kelp and its associated benthic community collected from 32 plots distributed among nine shallow reefs in the Santa Barbara Channel, USA. We showed that the stability of understory algae and sessile invertebrates was positively and indirectly related to the stability of giant kelp, which primarily resulted from giant kelp's direct positive association with species richness. The stability of all community types was positively related to species richness via increased species stability and species asynchrony. The stabilizing effects of richness were three to four times stronger when algae and invertebrates were considered separately rather than in combination. Our finding that diversity–stability relationships were stronger in communities consisting of species with similar resource requirements suggests that competition for shared resources rather than differential responses to environmental conditions played a more important role in stabilizing the community. Increasing threats to structure‐forming foundation species worldwide necessitates a detailed understanding of how they influence their associated community. This study is among the first to show that dampened temporal fluctuations in the biomass of a foundation species is an important determinant of the stability of the complex communities it supports. 

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