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1. Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

   https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9110159  

   Burruss, Dylan ; Rodriguez, Luis L. ; Drolet, Barbara ; Geil, Kerrie ; Pelzel-McCluskey, Angela M. ; Cohnstaedt, Lee W. ; Derner, Justin D. ; Peters, Debra P. ( November 2021 , Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission. 

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2. Multi‐dimensional biodiversity hotspots and the future of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity: A case study of North American rodents

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13050  

   Smiley, Tara M. ; Title, Pascal O. ; Zelditch, Miriam L. ; Terry, Rebecca C. ; Davies, ed., Jonathan ( January 2020 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   We investigate geographic patterns across taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity to test for spatial (in)congruency and identify aggregate diversity hotspots in relationship to present land use and future climate. Simulating extinctions of imperilled species, we demonstrate where losses across diversity dimensions and geography are predicted.

   North America.

   Present day, future.

   Rodentia.

   Using geographic range maps for rodent species, we quantified spatial patterns for 11 dimensions of diversity: taxonomic (species, range weighted), ecological (body size, diet and habitat), phylogenetic (mean, variance, and nearest‐neighbour patristic distances, phylogenetic distance and genus‐to‐species ratio) and phyloendemism. We tested for correlations across dimensions and used spatial residual analyses to illustrate regions of pronounced diversity. We aggregated diversity hotspots in relationship to predictions of land‐use and climate change and recalculated metrics following extinctions of IUCN‐listed imperilled species.

   Topographically complex western North America hosts high diversity across multiple dimensions: phyloendemism and ecological diversity exceed predictions based on taxonomic richness, and phylogenetic variance patterns indicate steep gradients in phylogenetic turnover. An aggregate diversity hotspot emerges in the west, whereas spatial incongruence exists across diversity dimensions at the continental scale. Notably, phylogenetic metrics are uncorrelated with ecological diversity. Diversity hotspots overlap with land‐use and climate change, and extinctions predicted by IUCN status are unevenly distributed across space, phylogeny or ecological groups.

   Comparison of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity patterns for North American rodents clearly shows the multifaceted nature of biodiversity. Testing for geographic patterns and (in)congruency across dimensions of diversity facilitates investigation into underlying ecological and evolutionary processes. The geographic scope of this analysis suggests that several explicit regional challenges face North American rodent fauna in the future. Simultaneous consideration of multi‐dimensional biodiversity allows us to assess what critical functions or evolutionary history we might lose with future extinctions and maximize the potential of our conservation efforts.

    

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3. Occupancy patterns and upper range limits of lowland Bornean birds along an elevational gradient

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13691  

   Burner, Ryan C. ; Styring, Alison R. ; Rahman, Mustafa A. ; Sheldon, Frederick H. ( August 2019 , Journal of Biogeography)

   The traditional view of species’ distributions is that they are less abundant near the edges of their ranges and more abundant towards the centre. Testing this pattern is difficult because of the complexity of distributions across wide geographical areas. An alternative strategy, however, is to measure species’ distributional patterns along elevational gradients. We applied this strategy to examine whether lowland forest birds are indeed less common near their upper range limits on a Bornean mountain, and tested co‐occurrence patterns among species for potential causes of attenuation, including signatures of habitat selection and competition at the periphery of their ranges.

   Mt. Mulu, Borneo.

   Rain forest birds.

   We surveyed lowland forest birds on Mt. Mulu (2,376 m), classified their elevation‐occupancy distributions using Huisman–Olff–Fresco (HOF) models, and examined co‐occurrence patterns of species pairs for signatures of shared habitat patches and interspecific competition.

   For 39 of 50 common species, occupancy was highest at sea level then gradually declined near their upper range edges, in keeping with a “rare periphery” hypothesis. With respect to habitat selection, lowland species do not appear to cluster together at sites of patchy similar habitat near their upper range limits; neither are most lowland species segregated from potential montane competitors where ranges overlap.

   High relative abundance at sea level implies that species inhabit “truncated niches” and are not currently near the limits of their fundamental niche, unless unknown critical response thresholds exist. However, indirect effects of increasing temperature predicted under climate change scenarios could still influence lower range limits of lowland species indirectly by altering habitat, precipitation regimes and competitive interactions. The lack of non‐random co‐occurrence patterns implies that patchy habitat and simple pairwise species interactions are unlikely to be responsible for upper range limits in most species; diffuse competition across diverse rain forest bird communities could still play a role.

    

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4. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity shed light on endemism of rare Boechera perstellata and its potential vulnerability to climate warming

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10540  

   Boyd, Jennifer Nagel ; Baskauf, Carol ; Lindsey, Annie ; Anderson, Jill T. ; Brzyski, Jessica ; Cruse‐Sanders, Jennifer ( September 2023 , Ecology and Evolution)

   The rapid pace of contemporary environmental change puts many species at risk, especially rare species constrained by limited capacity to adapt or migrate due to low genetic diversity and/or fitness. But the ability to acclimate can provide another way to persist through change. We compared the capacity of rareBoechera perstellata(Braun's rockcress) and widespreadB. laevigatato acclimate to change. We investigated the phenotypic plasticity of growth, biomass allocation, and leaf morphology of individuals ofB. perstellataandB. laevigatapropagated from seed collected from several populations throughout their ranges in a growth chamber experiment to assess their capacity to acclimate. Concurrently, we assessed the genetic diversity of sampled populations using 17 microsatellite loci to assess evolutionary potential. Plasticity was limited in both rareB. perstellataand widespreadB. laevigata, but differences in the plasticity of root traits between species suggest thatB. perstellatamay have less capacity to acclimate to change. In contrast to its widespread congener,B. perstellataexhibited no plasticity in response to temperature and weaker plastic responses to water availability. As expected,B. perstellataalso had lower levels of observed heterozygosity thanB. laevigataat the species level, but population‐level trends in diversity measures were inconsistent due to high heterogeneity amongB. laevigatapopulations. Overall, the ability of phenotypic plasticity to broadly explain the rarity ofB. perstellataversus commonness ofB. laevigatais limited. However, some contextual aspects of our plasticity findings compared with its relatively low genetic variability may shed light on the narrow range and habitat associations ofB. perstellataand suggest its vulnerability to climate warming due to acclimatory and evolutionary constraints.

    

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5. Untangling the importance of niche breadth and niche position as drivers of tree species abundance and occupancy across biogeographic regions

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13139  

   Vela Díaz, Dilys M. ; Blundo, Cecilia ; Cayola, Leslie ; Fuentes, Alfredo F. ; Malizia, Lucio R. ; Myers, Jonathan A. ; Pither, ed., Jason ( June 2020 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Ecological niches shape species commonness and rarity, yet, the relative importance of different niche mechanisms within and across ecosystems remains unresolved. We tested the influence of niche breadth (range of environmental conditions where species occur) and niche position (marginality of a species’ environmental distribution relative to the mean environmental conditions of a region) on tree‐species abundance and occupancy across three biogeographic regions.

   Argentinian Andes; Bolivian Amazon; Missouri Ozarks.

   2002–2010.

   Trees.

   We calculated abiotic‐niche breadths and abiotic‐niche positions using 16 climate, soil and topographic variables. For each region, we used model selection to test the relative influence of niche breadth and niche position on local abundance and occupancy in regional‐scale networks of 0.1‐ha forest plots. To account for species–environment associations caused by other mechanisms (e.g., dispersal), we used null models that randomized associations between species occurrences and environmental variables.

   We found strong support for the niche‐position hypothesis. In all regions, species with higher local abundance and occupancy occurred in non‐marginal environments. Observed relationships between occupancy and niche position also differed from random species–environment associations in all regions. Surprisingly, we found little support for the niche‐breadth hypothesis. Observed relationships between both local abundance and niche breadth, and occupancy and niche breadth, did not differ from random species–environment associations.

   Niche position was more important than niche breadth in shaping species commonness and rarity across temperate, sub‐tropical and tropical forests. In all forests, tree species with widespread geographic distributions were associated with environmental conditions commonly found throughout the region, suggesting that niche position has similar effects on species occupancy across contrasting biogeographic regions. Our findings imply that conservation efforts aimed at protecting populations of common and rare tree species should prioritize conservation of both common and rare habitats.

    

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