skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 10:00 PM ET on Friday, February 6 until 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, February 7 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Across‐model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change
Abstract Large across‐model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across‐model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO 2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix‐based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter‐model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter‐model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO 2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across‐model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2017884 2242034 1655499
PAR ID:
10446675
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Volume:
29
Issue:
10
ISSN:
1354-1013
Page Range / eLocation ID:
2759 to 2775
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Biogeosciences)
    null (Ed.)
    Abstract. Current peatland models generally treat vegetation as static, although plant community structure is known to alter as a response to environmental change. Because the vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning are tightly linked, realistic projections of peatland response to climate change require the inclusion of vegetation dynamics in ecosystem models. In peatlands, Sphagnum mosses are key engineers. Moss community composition primarily follows habitat moisture conditions. The known species habitat preference along the prevailing moisture gradient might not directly serve as a reliable predictor for future species compositions, as water table fluctuation is likely to increase. Hence, modelling the mechanisms that control the habitat preference of Sphagna is a good first step for modelling community dynamics in peatlands. In this study, we developed the Peatland Moss Simulator (PMS), which simulates the community dynamics of the peatland moss layer. PMS is a process-based model that employs a stochastic, individual-based approach for simulating competition within the peatland moss layer based on species differences in functional traits. At the shoot-level, growth and competition were driven by net photosynthesis, which was regulated by hydrological processes via the capitulum water content. The model was tested by predicting the habitat preferences of Sphagnum magellanicum and Sphagnum fallax – two key species representing dry (hummock) and wet (lawn) habitats in a poor fen peatland (Lakkasuo, Finland). PMS successfully captured the habitat preferences of the two Sphagnum species based on observed variations in trait properties. Our model simulation further showed that the validity of PMS depended on the interspecific differences in the capitulum water content being correctly specified. Neglecting the water content differences led to the failure of PMS to predict the habitat preferences of the species in stochastic simulations. Our work highlights the importance of the capitulum water content with respect to the dynamics and carbon functioning of Sphagnum communities in peatland ecosystems. Thus, studies of peatland responses to changing environmental conditions need to include capitulum water processes as a control on moss community dynamics. Our PMS model could be used as an elemental design for the future development of dynamic vegetation models for peatland ecosystems. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; (, Geophysical Research Letters)
    Abstract The variability of the summer North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) has substantial socioeconomic impacts. However, state‐of‐the‐art climate models significantly disagree on the response of the NPSH to anthropogenic warming. Inter‐model spread in NPSH projections originates from models' inconsistency in simulating tropical precipitation changes. This inconsistency in precipitation changes is partly due to inter‐model spread in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes, but it can also occur independently of uncertainty in SST changes. Here, we show that both types of precipitation uncertainty influence the NPSH via the Matsuno‐Gill wave response, but their relative impact varies by region. Through the modulation of low cloud fraction, inter‐model spread of the NPSH can have a further impact on extra‐tropical land surface temperature. The teleconnection between tropical precipitation and the NPSH is examined through a series of numerical experiments. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics)
    Abstract. We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29 ± 9 Tg-SO2/yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91 ± 0.44 %). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05 K ± 0.42 K and 2.28 ± 0.80 %, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081–2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (−3.79 ± 0.76 % for G6sulfur compared to −2.07 ± 0.40 % for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Limnology and Oceanography)
    Abstract In lakes, the rates of gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP) are often controlled by resource availability. Herein, we explore how catchment vs. within lake predictors of metabolism compare using data from 16 lakes spanning 39°N to 64°N, a range of inflowing streams, and trophic status. For each lake, we combined stream loads of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) with lake DOC, TN, and TP concentrations and high frequencyin situmonitoring of dissolved oxygen. We found that stream load stoichiometry indicated lake stoichiometry for C : N and C : P (r2 = 0.74 andr2 = 0.84, respectively), but not for N : P (r2 = 0.04). As we found a strong positive correlation between TN and TP, we only used TP in our statistical models. For the catchment model, GPP and R were best predicted by DOC load, TP load, and load N : P (R2 = 0.85 andR2 = 0.82, respectively). For the lake model, GPP and R were best predicted by TP concentrations (R2 = 0.86 andR2 = 0.67, respectively). The inclusion of N : P in the catchment model, but not the lake model, suggests that both N and P regulate metabolism and that organisms may be responding more strongly to catchment inputs than lake resources. Our models predicted NEP poorly, though it is unclear why. Overall, our work stresses the importance of characterizing lake catchment loads to predict metabolic rates, a result that may be particularly important in catchments experiencing changing hydrologic regimes related to global environmental change. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; (, Limnology and Oceanography)
    ABSTRACT Intermittent streams are characterized by significant periods of low to no flow, yet are also frequently subjected to flashy, high floods. Floods alter ecosystem function and result in variable successional patterns across the stream network. Yet, the timing of restored function after floods in intermittent stream networks is relatively unexplored. We measured recovery of stream ecosystem function using rates of gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the primary production to respiration ratio (P/R) across eight locations in the Kings Creek drainage basin with differing preflood conditions (previously dry [intermittent] or flowing [perennial]) over a 30‐d period following a 2‐yr return interval flood. We found that all metabolic rates (GPP, ER, NEP, P/R) varied primarily by time (days since flood) and antecedent flow, but not spatial network position (i.e., drainage area). Intermittent sites exhibited high rates of ER (0.17–3.33 g dissolved oxygen [DO] m−2d−1) following rewetting compared to perennial sites (0.03–1.17 g DO m−2d−1), while GPP, NEP, and P/R were slower to recover and varied less between sites of differing preflood conditions. Metabolic rates were not strongly influenced by other environmental conditions. A large proportion of variation was explained by the random effect of location. Our results suggest that metabolism is temporally asynchronous and highly heterogenous across intermittent watersheds and that antecedent hydrology (drying prior to rewetting) stimulates heterotrophic activity, likely dependent on terrestrially derived organic matter and nutrient subsidies. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Text Encoded Conversion
  • XML
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email