An official website of the United States government
Profound changes in Arctic sea-ice, a growing desire to utilize the Arctic’s abundant natural resources, and the potential competitiveness of Arctic shipping routes, all provide for increased industry marine activity throughout the Arctic Ocean. This is anticipated to result in further challenges for maritime safety. Those operating in ice-infested waters require various types of information for sea-ice and iceberg hazards. Ice information requirements depend on regional needs and whether the stakeholder wants to avoid ice all together, operate near or in the Marginal Ice Zone, or areas within the ice pack. An insight into user needs demonstrates how multiple spatial and temporal resolutions for sea-ice information and forecasts are necessary to provide information to the marine operating community for safety, planning, and situational awareness. Although ship-operators depend on sea-ice information for tactical navigation, stakeholders working in route and capacity planning can benefit from climatological and long-range forecast information at lower spatial and temporal resolutions where the interest is focused on open-water season. The advent of the Polar Code has brought with it additional information requirements, and exposed gaps in capacity and knowledge. Thus, future satellite data sources should be at resolutions that support both tactical and planning activities.
more »
« less
Mapping vessel traffic patterns in the ice-covered waters of the Pacific Arctic
Abstract Recent climate change has caused declines in ice coverage which have lengthened the open water season in the Arctic and increased access to resources and shipping routes. These changes have resulted in more vessel activity in seasonally ice-covered regions. While traffic is increasing in the ice-free season, the amount of vessel activity in the marginal ice zone (ice concentration 15–80%) or in pack ice (>80% concentration) remains unclear. Understanding patterns of vessel activities in ice is important given increased safety challenges and environmental impacts. Here, we couple high-resolution ship tracking information with sea ice thickness and concentration data to quantify vessel activity in ice-covered areas of the Pacific Arctic (northern Bering, Chukchi, and western Beaufort Seas). This region is a geo-strategically critical area that contains globally important commercial fisheries and serves as a corridor for Arctic access for wildlife and vessels. We find that vessel traffic in the marginal ice zone is widely distributed across the study area while vessel traffic in pack ice is concentrated along known shipping routes and in areas of natural resource development. Of the statistically significant relationships between vessel traffic and both sea ice concentration and thickness, over 99% are negative, indicating that increasing sea ice is associated with decreasing vessel traffic on a monthly time scale. Furthermore, there is substantial vessel traffic in areas of high concentration for bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus ), and traffic in these areas increased four-fold during the study period. Fishing vessels dominate vessel traffic at low ice concentrations, but vessels categorized as Other, likely icebreakers, are the most common vessel type in pack ice. These findings indicate that vessel traffic in areas of ice coverage is influenced by distant policy and resource development decisions which should be taken into consideration when trying to predict future vessel-ice interactions in a changing climate.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10448633
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Climatic Change
- Volume:
- 176
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0165-0009
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract As Arctic open water increases, shipping activity to and from mid- and western Russian Arctic ports to points south has notably increased. A number of Arctic municipalities hope increased vessel traffic will create opportunities to become a major transshipment hub. However, even with more traffic passing these ports, it might still be economically cheaper to offload cargo at a more southern port, which may also result in lower emissions. Ultimately, the question of whether to use a transshipment in the Arctic versus an established major European port is determined by the relative costs (or emissions) of sea versus land travel. This study calculates the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal hubs for shipments. We quantify the relative prices and CO 2 emissions for sea and land travel for routes starting at the Norwegian–Russian sea border with an ultimate destination in central Europe and find that all existing routes are not competitive with routes using the major existing Port of Rotterdam (Netherlands); even with investments in port expansion and modernization, they would be underutilized regardless of an increase in vessel traffic destined for central Europe. We then examine under what relative prices (emissions) these routes become economically viable or result in lower emissions than using existing southern ports. Notably, the cheapest routes generally produce the lowest emissions, and the most expensive routes tend to have the largest emissions. Communities should consider relative competitiveness prior to making large infrastructure investments. While some choices are physically possible, they may not be economically viable. Significance Statement Climate change, while disruptive, can also create new opportunities. Many Arctic cities hope to become a major transshipping hub as declining sea ice opens new shipping routes from western and mid-Russian Arctic ports to European ports. This paper quantifies the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal transportation hubs and finds that they are uncompetitive with the more southern port in Rotterdam (Netherlands). We also show that the most economically competitive routes have lower direct emissions. Thus, while Arctic ports provide critical services in support of local and regional economic activity, even with year-round Arctic navigation Arctic ports’ development into major transshipment hubs for cargo destined for more distant locations may be neither economically viable nor desirable.more » « less
-
Many uncertainties and a complex suite of drivers of change are influencing the future of Arctic marine operations and commercial shipping. Most notably, the well-documented reduction of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness and the transition from thick, multi-year to seasonal, first-year ice are profound responses to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic Ocean is becoming more navigable, with greater marine access now attained in most regions. The possibilities for longer seasons of marine navigation during spring, summer, and autumn are real, but the vision of new, year-round (routine) Arctic shipping that could alter global trade routes remains highly implausible. Arctic shipping remains largely destinational, with ships traveling into the Arctic Ocean to conduct an economic activity (Lasserre, 2019).more » « less
-
Phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) can be prolific dimethylsulfide (DMS) producers, thereby influencing regional aerosol formation and cloud radiative forcing. Here we describe the distribution of DMS and its precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) across the Baffin Bay receding ice edge in early summer 2016. Overall, DMS and total DMSP (DMSPt) increased towards warmer waters of Atlantic origin concurrently with more advanced ice-melt and bloom stages. Relatively high DMS and DMSPt (medians of 6.3 and 70 nM, respectively) were observed in the surface layer (0–9 m depth), and very high values (reaching 74 and 524 nM, respectively) at the subsurface biomass maximum (15–30 m depth). Microscopic and pigment analyses indicated that subsurface DMS and DMSPt peaks were associated with Phaeocystis pouchetii, which bloomed in Atlantic-influenced waters and reached unprecedented biomass levels in Baffin Bay. In surface waters, DMS concentrations and DMS:DMSPt ratios were higher in the MIZ (medians of 12 nM and 0.15, respectively) than in fully ice-covered or ice-free conditions, potentially associated with enhanced phytoplanktonic DMSP release and bacterial DMSP cleavage (high dddP:dmdA gene ratios). Mean sea–air DMS fluxes (micromol m–2 d–1) increased from 0.3 in ice-covered waters to 10 in open waters (maximum of 26) owing to concurrent trends in near-surface DMS concentrations and physical drivers of gas exchange. Using remotely sensed sea-ice coverage and a compilation of sea–air DMS flux data, we estimated that the pan-Arctic DMS emission from the MIZ was 5–13 Gg S yr–1. North of 80 oN, DMS emissions might have increased by around 10% yr–1 between 2003 and 2014, likely exceeding open-water emissions in June and July. We conclude that DMS emissions from the MIZ must be taken into account to evaluate plankton-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.more » « less
-
Abstract. The melting of sea ice floes from the edges (lateral melting) results in open-water formation and subsequently increases absorption of solar shortwave energy. However, lateral melt plays a small role in the sea ice mass budget in both hemispheres in most climate models. This is likely influenced by the simple parameterization of lateral melting in sea ice models that are constrained by limited observations. Here we use a coupled climate model (CESM2.0) to assess the sensitivity of modeled sea ice state to the lateral melt parameterization in preindustrial and 2×CO2 runs. The runs explore the implications of how lateral melting is parameterized and structural changes in how it is applied. The results show that sea ice is sensitive both to the parameters determining the effective lateral melt rate and the nuances in how lateral melting is applied to the ice pack. Increasing the lateral melt rate is largely compensated for by decreases in the basal melt rate but still results in a significant decrease in sea ice concentration and thickness, particularly in the marginal ice zone. Our analysis suggests that this is tied to the increased efficiency of lateral melting at forming open water during the summer melt season, which drives the majority of the ice–albedo feedback. The more seasonal Southern Hemisphere ice cover undergoes larger relative reductions in sea ice concentration and thickness for the same relative increase in lateral melt rate, likely due to the hemispheric differences in the role of the sea-ice–upper-ocean coupling.Additionally, increasing the lateral melt rate under a 2×CO2 forcing, where sea ice is thinner, results in a smaller relative change in sea ice mean state but suggests that open-water-formation feedbacks are likely to steepen the decline to ice-free summer conditions.Overall, melt processes are more efficient at forming open water in thinner ice scenarios (as we are likely to see in the future), suggesting the importance of accurately representing thermodynamic evolution. Revisiting model parameterizations of lateral melting with observations will require finding new ways to represent salient physical processes.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03568-3
