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Title: A Bayesian approach to integrating radiometric dating and varve measurements in intermittently indistinct sediment

Abstract. Annually laminated lake sediment can track paleoenvironmental change at high resolution where alternative archives are often not available. However,information about the chronology is often affected by indistinct and intermittent laminations. Traditional chronology building struggles with thesekinds of laminations, typically failing to adequately estimate uncertainty or discarding the information recorded in the laminations entirely,despite their potential to improve chronologies. We present an approach that overcomes the challenge of indistinct or intermediate laminations andother obstacles by using a quantitative lamination quality index combined with a multi-core, multi-observer Bayesian lamination sedimentation modelthat quantifies realistic under- and over-counting uncertainties while integrating information from radiometric measurements (210Pb,137Cs, and 14C) into the chronology. We demonstrate this approach on sediment of indistinct and intermittently laminatedsequences from alpine Columbine Lake, Colorado. The integrated model indicates 3137 (95 % highest probability density range: 2753–3375) varveyears with a cumulative posterior distribution of counting uncertainties of −13 % to +7 %, indicative of systematic observerunder-counting. Our novel approach provides a realistic constraint on sedimentation rates and quantifies uncertainty in the varve chronology byquantifying over- and under-counting uncertainties related to observer bias as well as the quality and variability of the sediment appearance. The approachpermits the construction of a chronology and sedimentation rates for sites with intermittent or indistinct laminations, which are likely moreprevalent than sequences with distinct laminations, especially when considering non-lacustrine sequences, and thus expands the possibilities ofreconstructing past environmental change with high resolution.

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Award ID(s):
1919506
NSF-PAR ID:
10474738
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Copernicus Publications
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geochronology
Volume:
4
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2628-3719
Page Range / eLocation ID:
409 to 433
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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