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Abstract Vehicle electrification is a common climate change mitigation strategy, with policymakers invoking co‐beneficial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions. However, while previous studies of U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption consistently predict CO2mitigation benefits, air quality outcomes are equivocal and depend on policies assessed and experimental parameters. We analyze climate and health co‐benefits and trade‐offs of six U.S. EV adoption scenarios: 25% or 75% replacement of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, each under three different EV‐charging energy generation scenarios. We transfer emissions from tailpipe to power generation plant, simulate interactions of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology using the GFDL‐AM4 chemistry climate model, and assess health consequences and uncertainties using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program Community Edition (BenMAP‐CE). We find that 25% U.S. EV adoption, with added energy demand sourced from the present‐day electric grid, annually results in a ~242 M ton reduction in CO2emissions, 437 deaths avoided due to PM2.5reductions (95% CI: 295, 578), and 98 deaths avoided due to lesser ozone formation (95% CI: 33, 162). Despite some regions experiencing adverse health outcomes, ~$16.8B in damages avoided are predicted. Peak CO2reductions and health benefits occur with 75% EV adoption and increased emission‐free energy sources (~$70B in damages avoided). When charging‐electricity from aggressive EV adoption is combustion‐only, adverse health outcomes increase substantially, highlighting the importance of low‐to‐zero emission power generation for greater realization of health co‐benefits. Our results provide a more nuanced understanding of the transportation sector's climate change mitigation‐health impact relationship.
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The Interplay of Incentives, Electricity Price and Demand on Transport Decarbonization: The Case of Electric Vehicles in the U.S.
While extant research explores the impact of Electric Vehicle (EV) incentives on EV market shares, less is known about how such policies and other socioeconomic factors interact that ultimately affect the goal of transportation emission reductions. The study summarized herein employed a sample of 510 state-year CO 2 emissions data sets in the transportation sector spanning a decade (2010-2019) in a multiple linear regression model. Going beyond earlier studies, we find that, while a higher number of EV incentives would significantly contribute to transportation emission reductions, this effect could be dampened by population growth. In addition, we find that, while higher electricity prices may weaken the effectiveness of EV incentives, a high count of EV incentives is more effective in reducing CO 2 emissions than a low count of EV incentives when the electricity price is low. This finding implies that having multiple EV incentives can be effective in reducing transportation carbon emissions even in the face of rising prices of electricity. The study also examines the effectiveness of promoting the density of charging stations and alternative fuel incentives in advancing carbon emission reductions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1847077
- PAR ID:
- 10492342
- Publisher / Repository:
- IEEE
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IEEE Engineering Management Review
- ISSN:
- 0360-8581
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 17
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2023.3347147
