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Due to the potentially significant benefits for society, forecasting spatio-temporal societal events is currently attracting considerable attention from researchers. Beyond merely predicting the occurrence of future events, practitioners are now looking for information about specific subtypes of future events in order to allocate appropriate amounts and types of resources to manage such events and any associated social risks. However, forecasting event subtypes is far more complex than merely extending binary prediction to cover multiple classes, as 1) different locations require different models to handle their characteristic event subtype patterns due to spatial heterogeneity; 2) historically, many locations have only experienced a incomplete set of event subtypes, thus limiting the local model’s ability to predict previously “unseen” subtypes; and 3) the subtle discrepancy among different event subtypes requires more discriminative and profound representations of societal events. In order to address all these challenges concurrently, we propose a Spatial Incomplete Multi-task Deep leArning (SIMDA) framework that is capable of effectively forecasting the subtypes of future events. The new framework formulates spatial locations into tasks to handle spatial heterogeneity in event subtypes, and learns a joint deep representation of subtypes across tasks. Furthermore, based on the “first law of geography”, spatiallyclosed tasks share similar event subtype patterns such that adjacent tasks can share knowledge with each other effectively. Optimizing the proposed model amounts to a new nonconvex and strongly-coupled problem, we propose a new algorithm based on Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) that can decompose the complex problem into subproblems that can be solved efficiently. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.
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Task-Adaptive Meta-Learning Framework for Advancing Spatial Generalizability
Spatio-temporal machine learning is critically needed for a variety of societal applications, such as agricultural monitoring, hydrological forecast, and traffic management. These applications greatly rely on regional features that characterize spatial and temporal differences. However, spatio-temporal data often exhibit complex patterns and significant data variability across different locations. The labels in many real-world applications can also be limited, which makes it difficult to separately train independent models for different locations. Although meta learning has shown promise in model adaptation with small samples, existing meta learning methods remain limited in handling a large number of heterogeneous tasks, e.g., a large number of locations with varying data patterns. To bridge the gap, we propose task-adaptive formulations and a model-agnostic meta-learning framework that transforms regionally heterogeneous data into location-sensitive meta tasks. We conduct task adaptation following an easy-to-hard task hierarchy in which different meta models are adapted to tasks of different difficulty levels. One major advantage of our proposed method is that it improves the model adaptation to a large number of heterogeneous tasks. It also enhances the model generalization by automatically adapting the meta model of the corresponding difficulty level to any new tasks. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework over a diverse set of baselines and state-of-the-art meta-learning frameworks. Our extensive experiments on real crop yield data show the effectiveness of the proposed method in handling spatial-related heterogeneous tasks in real societal applications.
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- PAR ID:
- 10504018
- Publisher / Repository:
- AAAI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2159-5399
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 14365 to 14373
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v37i12.26680
