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Abstract Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is an important advance in water management, but the design and testing of FIRO policies is limited by relatively short (10–35 year) hydro‐meteorological hindcasts. We present a novel, multisite model for synthetic forecast ensembles to overcome this limitation. This model utilizes parametric and non‐parametric procedures to capture complex forecast errors and maintain correlation between variables, lead times, locations, and ensemble members. After being fit to data from the hindcast period, this model can generate synthetic forecast ensembles in any period with observations. We demonstrate the approach in a case study of the FIRO‐based Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) control policy for the Lake Mendocino—Russian River basin, which conditions release decisions on ensemble forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). We explore two generation strategies: (a) simulation of synthetic forecasts of meteorology to force HEFS; and (b) simulation of synthetic HEFS streamflow forecasts directly. We evaluate the synthetic forecasts using ensemble verification techniques and event‐based validation, finding good agreement with the actual ensemble forecasts. We then evaluate EFO policy performance using synthetic and actual forecasts over the hindcast period (1985–2010) and synthetic forecasts only over the pre‐hindcast period (1948–1984). Results show that the synthetic forecasts highlight important failure modes of the EFO policy under plausible forecast ensembles, but improvements are still needed to fully capture FIRO policy behavior under the actual forecast ensembles. Overall, the methodology advances a novel way to test FIRO policy robustness, which is key to building institutional support for FIRO.
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Using Machine Learning Models for Short-Term Prediction of Dissolved Oxygen in a Microtidal Estuary
This paper presents a comprehensive approach to predicting short-term (for the upcoming 2 weeks) changes in estuarine dissolved oxygen concentrations via machine learning models that integrate historical water sampling, historical and upcoming 2-week meteorological data, and river discharge and discharge metrics. Dissolved oxygen is a critical indicator of ecosystem health, and this approach is implemented for the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, U.S.A., which has a long history of hypoxia-related habitat degradation. Through meticulous data preprocessing and feature selection, this research evaluates the predictions of dissolved oxygen concentrations by comparing a recurrent neural network with four other models, including a Multilayer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory, Gradient Boosting, and AutoKeras, through sensitivity experiments. The input predictors to our prediction models include water temperature, turbidity, chlorophyll-a, aggregated river discharge, and aggregated wind based on eight directions. By emphasizing the most impactful predictors, we streamlined the model-building processes and built a hindcast system from 2015 to 2019. We found that the recurrent neural network model was most effective in predicting the dissolved oxygen concentrations, with an R2 value of 0.99 at multiple stations. Different from our machine learning hindcast models that used observed upcoming meteorological and discharge data, an actual forecast system would use forecasted meteorological and discharge data. Therefore, an actual operational forecast may have lower accuracy than the hindcast, as determined by the accuracy of the predicted meteorological and discharge data. Nevertheless, our studies enhance our understanding of the factors influencing dissolved oxygen variability and set the basis for the implementation of a predictive tool for environmental monitoring and management. We also emphasized the importance of building station-specific models to improve the prediction results.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2230046
- PAR ID:
- 10558390
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 14
- ISSN:
- 2073-4441
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1998
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/w16141998
