skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications
Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance StatementThis study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2019758
PAR ID:
10567245
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
AMS
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems
Volume:
3
Issue:
4
ISSN:
2769-7525
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; (, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting)
    The development of autonomous vehicles presents significant challenges, particularly in predicting pedestrian behaviors. This study addresses the critical issue of uncertainty in such predictions by distinguishing between aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) and epistemic (knowledge limitations) uncertainties. Using evidential deep learning (EDL) techniques, we analyze these uncertainties in two key pedestrian behaviors: road crossing and short-term movement prediction. Our findings indicate that epistemic uncertainty is consistently higher than aleatoric uncertainty, highlighting the greater difficulty in predicting pedestrian actions due to limited information. Additionally, both types of uncertainties are more pronounced in crossing predictions compared to destination predictions, underscoring the complexity of future-oriented behaviors. These insights emphasize the necessity for AV algorithms to account for different levels of behavior-related uncertainties, ultimately enhancing the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving systems. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of pedestrian behavior prediction and lays the groundwork for future studies to explore scenario-specific uncertainty factors. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; ; (, ICML)
    Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty, resulting from missing information in the model’s training data. In large language models (LLMs) specifically, identifying sources of uncertainty is an important step toward improving reliability, trustworthiness, and interpretability, but remains an important open research question. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty decomposition framework for LLMs, called input clarification ensembling, which can be applied to any pre-trained LLM. Our approach generates a set of clarifications for the input, feeds them into an LLM, and ensembles the corresponding predictions. We show that, when aleatoric uncertainty arises from ambiguity or under-specification in LLM inputs, this approach makes it possible to factor an (un-clarified) LLM’s predictions into separate aleatoric and epistemic terms, using a decomposition similar to the one employed by Bayesian neural networks. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that input clarification ensembling provides accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification on several language processing tasks. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; (, Proceeding of the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR))
    Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technology captures spectral information across a broad wavelength range, providing richer pixel features compared to traditional color images with only three channels. Although pixel classification in HSI has been extensively studied, especially using graph convolution neural networks (GCNs), quantifying epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties associated with the HSI classification (HSIC) results remains an unexplored area. These two uncertainties are effective for out-of-distribution (OOD) and misclassification detection, respectively. In this paper, we adapt two advanced uncertainty quantification models, evidential GCNs (EGCN) and graph posterior networks (GPN), designed for node classifications in graphs, into the realm of HSIC. We first reveal theoretically that a popular uncertainty cross-entropy (UCE) loss function is insufficient to produce good epistemic uncertainty when learning EGCNs. To mitigate the limitations, we propose two regularization terms. One leverages the inherent property of HSI data where each feature vector is a linear combination of the spectra signatures of the confounding materials, while the other is the total variation (TV) regularization to enforce the spatial smoothness of the evidence with edge-preserving. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed regularization terms on both EGCN and GPN on three real-world HSIC datasets for OOD and misclassification detection tasks. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; (, Proceeding of the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR))
    Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technology captures spectral information across a broad wavelength range, providing richer pixel features compared to traditional color images with only three channels. Although pixel classification in HSI has been extensively studied, especially using graph convolution neural networks (GCNs), quantifying epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties associated with the HSI classification (HSIC) results remains an unexplored area. These two uncertainties are effective for out-of-distribution (OOD) and misclassification detection, respectively. In this paper, we adapt two advanced uncertainty quantification models, evidential GCNs (EGCN) and graph posterior networks (GPN), designed for node classifications in graphs, into the realm of HSIC. We first reveal theoretically that a popular uncertainty cross-entropy (UCE) loss function is insufficient to produce good epistemic uncertainty when learning EGCNs. To mitigate the limitations, we propose two regularization terms. One leverages the inherent property of HSI data where each feature vector is a linear combination of the spectra signatures of the confounding materials, while the other is the total variation (TV) regularization to enforce the spatial smoothness of the evidence with edge-preserving. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed regularization terms on both EGCN and GPN on three real-world HSIC datasets for OOD and misclassification detection tasks. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; (, Proceeding of the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR))
    Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technology captures spectral information across a broad wavelength range, providing richer pixel features compared to traditional color images with only three channels. Although pixel classification in HSI has been extensively studied, especially using graph convolution neural networks (GCNs), quantifying epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties associated with the HSI classification (HSIC) results remains an unexplored area. These two uncertainties are effective for out-of-distribution (OOD) and misclassification detection, respectively. In this paper, we adapt two advanced uncertainty quantification models, evidential GCNs (EGCN) and graph posterior networks (GPN), designed for node classifications in graphs, into the realm of HSIC. We first reveal theoretically that a popular uncertainty cross-entropy (UCE) loss function is insufficient to produce good epistemic uncertainty when learning EGCNs. To mitigate the limitations, we propose two regularization terms. One leverages the inherent property of HSI data where each feature vector is a linear combination of the spectra signatures of the confounding materials, while the other is the total variation (TV) regularization to enforce the spatial smoothness of the evidence with edge-preserving. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed regularization terms on both EGCN and GPN on three real-world HSIC datasets for OOD and misclassification detection tasks. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email