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Abstract The spatiotemporal evolution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is explored using a tracking algorithm called Ocetrac that provides the objective characterization of MHW spatiotemporal evolution. Candidate MHW grid points are defined in detrended gridded sea temperature data using a seasonally varying temperature threshold. Identified MHW points are collected into spatially distinct objects using edge detection with weak sensitivity to edge detection and size percentile threshold criteria at each time step. Ocetrac then uses 3D connectivity to determine if these objects are part of the same event, but Ocetrac only defines the full MHW event after all time steps have been processed, limiting its use in predictability studies. Here, Ocetrac is applied to monthly satellite sea surface temperature data from September 1981 through January 2021. The resulting MHWs are characterized by their intensity, duration, and total area covered. The global analysis shows that MHWs in the Gulf of Maine and Mediterranean Sea are spatially isolated, while major MHWs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are connected in space and time. The largest and most long-lasting MHW using this method lasts for 60 months from November 2013 to October 2018, encompassing previously identified MHW events including those in the northeast Pacific (2014–15), the Tasman Sea (2015–16, 2017–18), and the Great Barrier Reef (2016). Significance StatementThis study introduces Ocetrac, a method to track the spatiotemporal evolution of marine heatwaves (MHWs). It is applied to satellite sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2021. The method objectively identifies and tracks MHWs in space and time while allowing for splitting and merging. The resulting MHWs are characterized by intensity, duration, and total area covered. Marine heatwaves can have significant ecological consequences, including biodiversity loss and mortality, geographical shifts, and range reductions in marine species and community structure changes when physiological thresholds are exceeded. This results in both ecological and economic impacts. Ocetrac provides a method of tracking the space and time evolution of MHWs that can provide a visualization that demonstrates the global impact of these events.
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Object‐Based Evaluation of Seasonal‐to‐Multiyear Marine Heatwave Predictions
Abstract Accurate and interpretable marine heatwave (MHW) forecasts allow decision makers and industries to plan for and respond to extreme ocean temperature events. Recent work demonstrates skillful pointwise prediction of MHWs. Here, we evaluate a method of detecting and predicting spatially connected MHW objects. We apply object‐based forecast verification to the Community Earth Systems Model Seasonal‐to‐Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) experiment, a set of initialized hindcasts with 20‐member ensembles of 24‐month simulations initialized quarterly from 1970 to 2019. We demonstrate that SMYLE predicts MHWs that occur near observed MHWs with high skill at long lead times, but with errors in location, area, and intensity that grow with lead time. SMYLE exhibits improved skill in predicting the intensity of MHWs in December and January, and worse skill from August to October. This work illustrates the capacity to forecast connected MHW objects and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts with potential applications for future community use.
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- PAR ID:
- 10614113
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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