An official website of the United States government
Abstract This paper explores the interplay between the biophysical and economic geographies of climate change impacts on agriculture. It does so by bridging the extensive literature on climate impacts on yields and physical productivity in global crop production, with the literature on the role of adaptation through international trade in determining the consequences of climate change impacts. Unlike previous work in this area, instead of using a specific crop model or a set of models, we employ a statistical meta-analysis that encompasses all studies available to the IPCC-AR5 report. This permits us to isolate specific elements of the spatially heterogeneous biophysical geography of climate impacts, including the role of initial temperature, differential patterns of warming, and varying crop responses to warming across the globe. We combine these climate impact estimates with the Global Trade Analysis Project model of global trade in order to estimate the national welfare changes that are decomposed into three components: the direct (biophysical impact) contribution to welfare, the terms of trade effect, and the allocative efficiency effect. We find that when we remove the spatial variation in climate impacts, the terms of trade impacts are cut in half. Given the inherent heterogeneity of climate impacts in agriculture, this points to the important role of trade in distributing the associated welfare impacts. When we allow the biophysical impacts to vary across the empirically estimated uncertainty range taken from the meta-analysis, we find that the welfare consequences are highly asymmetric, with much larger losses at the low end of the yield distribution. This interaction between the magnitude and heterogeneity of biophysical climate shocks and their welfare effects highlight the need for detailed representation of both in projecting climate change impacts.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on November 28, 2026
Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance
ABSTRACT Current science indicates that warming and elevated atmospheric CO2will have ambiguous results for crop productivity depending on crop type and geographic location, whereas increased heat stress makes livestock and human labor less productive. The differential impacts across regions will alter comparative advantage and shift the patterns of global trade. This paper employs an economywide trade model to assess all three types of productivity shocks under a 3°C global warming scenario. We find that the widening agricultural trade deficits persist, even as the overall US trade balance improves due to enhanced investment inflows.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2020635
- PAR ID:
- 10655469
- Publisher / Repository:
- WILEY
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
- ISSN:
- 2040-5790
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Irrigated agriculture in snow-dependent regions contributes significantly to global food production. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the snow-dependent Yakima River Basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest United States. Here we show that increasingly severe droughts and temperature driven reductions in growing season significantly reduces expected annual agricultural productivity. The overall reduction in mean annual productivity also dampens interannual yield variability, limiting yield-driven revenue fluctuations. Our findings show that farmers who adapt to climate change by planting improved crop varieties may potentially increase their expected mean annaul productivity in an altered climate, but remain strongly vulnerable to irrigation water shortages that substantially increase interannual yield variability (i.e., increasing revenue volatility). Our results underscore the importance for crop adaptation strategies to simultaneously capture the biophysical effects of warming as well as the institutional controls on water availability.more » « less
-
Research investments in crop improvements, including by national and international agricultural research centers, have made significant contributions to raising yields of staple food crops in developing countries. Although mostly intended to improve food security and rural incomes, innovations in crop production also have major implications for the environment. Building on the latest productivity estimates from historical crop improvements in developing countries and using a gridded (0.25 degrees) equilibrium model of global agriculture, we assess the impacts of improved crop varieties on cropland use, threatened biodiversity, and terrestrial carbon stocks over 1961–2015. We replicate a historical baseline and produce a counterfactual scenario which shows the impact of omitting productivity improvements from these technologies. The results show that higher crop productivity generally lowered commodity prices, which reduced incentives to expand cropland except in those areas where productivity gains outweighed price declines. The net global effect of technology adoption was to limit conversion of natural habitat to agricultural use, although it did cause cropland to expand in some areas. We estimate that adoption of improved crop varieties in developing countries saved on net 16.03 [95% CI, 12.33 to 20.89] million hectares worldwide. With more natural habitat preserved, around 1,043 [95% CI, 616 to 1,503] threatened animal and plant species extinctions were avoided over this period. In addition, net land use savings from the improved crop varieties resulted in avoided terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of around 5.35 [95% CI, 3.75 to 7.22] billion metric tons CO2equivalent retained in terrestrial carbon stocks.more » « less
-
Abstract As the severity of climate change and its associated impacts continue to worsen, schemes for artificially cooling surface temperatures via planetary albedo modification are being studied. The method with the most attention in the literature is stratospheric sulfate aerosol intervention (SAI). Placing reflective aerosols in the stratosphere would have profound impacts on the entire Earth system, with potentially far‐reaching societal impacts. How global crop productivity would be affected by such an intervention strategy is still uncertain, and existing evidence is based on theoretical experiments or isolated modeling studies that use crop models missing key processes associated with SAI that affect plant growth, development, and ultimately yield. Here, we utilize three global gridded process‐based crop models to better understand the potential impacts of one SAI scenario on global maize productivity. Two of the crop models that simulate diffuse radiation fertilization show similar, yet small increases in global maize productivity from increased diffuse radiation. Three crop models show diverse responses to the same climate perturbation from SAI relative to the reference future climate change scenario. We find that future SAI implementation relative to a climate change scenario benefits global maize productivity ranging between 0% and 11% depending on the crop model. These production increases are attributed to reduced surface temperatures and higher fractions of diffuse radiation. The range across model outcomes highlights the need for more systematic multi‐model ensemble assessments using multiple climate model forcings under different SAI scenarios.more » « less
-
Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3∘C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3∘C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.more » « less
