High resolution mobility datasets have become increasingly available in the past few years and have enabled detailed models for infectious disease spread including those for COVID-19. However, there are open questions on how such a mobility data can be used effectively within epidemic models and for which tasks they are best suited. In this paper, we extract a number of graph-based proximity metrics from high resolution cellphone trace data from X-Mode and use it to study COVID-19 epidemic spread in 50 land grant university counties in the US. We present an approach to estimate the effect of mobility on casesmore »
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The Mumbai Suburban Railways, locals, are a key transit infrastructure of the city and is crucial for resuming normal economic activity. Due to high density during transit, the potential risk of disease transmission is high, and the government has taken a wait and see approach to resume normal operations. To reduce disease transmission, policymakers can enforce reduced crowding and mandate wearing of masks. Cohorting – forming groups of travelers that always travel together, is an additional policy to reduce disease transmission on locals without severe restrictions. Cohorting allows us to: (𝑖) form traveler bubbles, thereby decreasing the number of distinctmore »
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The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatiotemporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep learning-based time series models for forecasting have recently gained popularity and have been successfully used for epidemic forecasting. Here we focus on the design and analysis of deep learning-based models for COVID-19 forecasting. We implement multiple recurrent neural network-based deep learning models and combine them using the stacking ensemble technique. In order to incorporate the effects of multiple factors in COVID-19 spread, we consider multiple sources such as COVID-19more »
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Reopening of colleges and universities for the Fall semester of 2020 across the United States has caused signi ficant COVID-19 case spikes, requiring reactive responses such as temporary closures and switching to online learning. Until sufficient levels of immunity are reached through vaccination, Institutions of Higher Education will need to balance academic operations with COVID-19 spread risk within and outside the student community. In this work, we study the impact of proximity statistics obtained from high resolution mobility traces in predicting case rate surges in university counties. We focus on 50 land-grant university counties (LGUCs) across the country and showmore »
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This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-o s between economic losses, and lives savedmore »
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We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Even optimistic estimates suggest that most countries will likely take 6 to 24 months to vaccinate their citizens. These time estimates and the emergence of new viral strains urge us to find quick and effective ways to allocate the vaccines and contain the pandemic. While current approaches use combinations of age-based and occupation-based prioritizations, our strategy marks a departure from such largely aggregate vaccine allocation strategies. We propose a novel agent-based modeling approach motivated by recent advances in (i) science ofmore »
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Disease dynamics, human mobility, and public policies co-evolve during a pandemic such as COVID-19. Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns are crucial for understanding and forecasting COVID- 19 dynamics. We introduce a novel graph-based neural network(GNN) to incorporate global aggregated mobility flows for a better understanding of the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 dynamics as well as better forecasting of disease dynamics. We propose a recurrent message passing graph neural network that embeds spatio-temporal disease dynamics and human mobility dynamics for daily state-level new confirmed cases forecasting. This work represents one of the early papers onmore »
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The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an unprecedented need for experts, as well as citizens, to visualize spatio-temporal disease surveillance data. Web application dashboards were quickly developed to fill this gap, including those built by JHU, WHO, and CDC, but all of these dashboards supported a particular niche view of the pandemic (ie, current status or specific regions). In this paper1, we describe our work developing our own COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard, available at https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid19/dashboard/, which offers a universal view of the pandemic while also allowing users to focus on the details that interest them. From the beginning, our goalmore »
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Computational epidemiology aims to develop computer models and decision support systems that understand, predict, and control a disease’s spatiotemporal diffusion throughout a population. Researchers can use these models to forecast an epidemic’s future course, allocate scarce resources and assess depletion of current resources, infer disease parameters, and evaluate various interventions. Individual behavior and public policy are critical in understanding and controlling infectious diseases, and computational techniques provide a potentially powerful study tool. The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant social, health, economic, and political ramifications worldwide, and its impact will undoubtedly continue to grow in the coming months. Here we outlinemore »
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Computational epidemiology aims to develop computer models and decision support systems that understand, predict, and control a disease’s spatiotemporal diffusion throughout a population. Researchers can use these models to forecast an epidemic’s future course, allocate scarce resources and assess depletion of current resources, infer disease parameters, and evaluate various interventions. Individual behavior and public policy are critical in understanding and controlling infectious diseases, and computational techniques provide a potentially powerful study tool. The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant social, health, economic, and political ramifications worldwide, and its impact will undoubtedly continue to grow in the coming months.Here we outline anmore »
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