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Abstract An autonomous adaptive model predictive control (MPC) architecture is presented for control of heating, ventilation, and air condition (HVAC) systems to maintain indoor temperature while reducing energy use. Although equipment use and occupant changes with time, existing MPC methods are not capable of automatically relearning models and computing control decisions reliably for extended periods without intervention from a human expert. We seek to address this weakness. Two major features are embedded in the proposed architecture to enable autonomy: (i) a system identification algorithm from our prior work that periodically re-learns building dynamics and unmeasured internal heat loads from data without requiring re-tuning by experts. The estimated model is guaranteed to be stable and has desirable physical properties irrespective of the data; (ii) an MPC planner with a convex approximation of the original nonconvex problem. The planner uses a descent and convergent method, with the underlying optimization problem being feasible and convex. A yearlong simulation with a realistic plant shows that both of the features of the proposed architecture—periodic model and disturbance update and convexification of the planning problem—are essential to get performance improvement over a commonly used baseline controller. Without these features, long-term energy savings from MPC can be small while with them, the savings from MPC become substantial. 

We propose a method that simultaneously identifies a sparse transfer matrix and disturbance for a multi-zone building’s dynamics from input-output measurements. An l1 -regularized least-squares optimization problem is solved to obtain a sparse solution, so that only dominant interactions among zones are retained in the model. The disturbance is assumed to be piecewise-constant: the assumption aids identification and is motivated by the nature of occupancy that determines the disturbance. Application of our method on data from a simulation model shows promising results. 

We propose a method that simultaneously identifies a dynamic model of a building’s temperature in the presence of large, unmeasured disturbances, and a transformed version of the unmeasured disturbance. Our method uses l1-regularization to encourage the identified disturbance to be approximately sparse, which is motivated by the piecewise constant nature of occupancy that determines the disturbance. We test our method using both open-loop and closed-loop simulation data. Results show that the identified model can accurately identify the transfer functions in both scenarios, even in the presence of large disturbances, and even when the disturbance does not satisfy the piecewise-constant property. 

A model of a building’s thermal dynamics is needed for prediction-based control. The task of identifying a thermal dynamic model is made challenging by the presence of large unmeasured disturbances, especially the heat gain due to the occupants. In fact, identification of this “occupant-induced load” is also valuable for predictive control—especially in commercial buildings. We propose a method to identify both a model (of resistance-capacitance network type) and the unmeasured disturbances from measured input-output data. The method is based on the insight that the main contributor to the unmeasured disturbance, the occupant-induced load, is piecewise constant, especially in commercial buildings. This can be used to construct an augmented dynamic model so that disturbance estimation is converted to a state estimation problem. An outer-loop optimization identifies the best-fit parameter values. The effectiveness of the method is evaluated using data from a simulation model (under both open and closed-loop operations) and a real building.