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Abstract Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management. 

Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the ε-contamination model, where an adversary can inspect and replace up to an ε-fraction of the samples, a fundamental open problem is determining the optimal rates for robust stochastic convex optimization (SCO) under such contamination. We develop novel algorithms that achieve minimax-optimal excess risk (up to logarithmic factors) under the ε-contamination model. Our approach improves over existing algorithms, which are not only suboptimal but also require stringent assumptions, including Lipschitz continuity and smoothness of individual sample functions. By contrast, our optimal algorithms do not require these stringent assumptions, assuming only population-level smoothness of the loss. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to handle the case in which the covariance parameter is unknown, and can be extended to nonsmooth population risks via convolutional smoothing. We complement our algorithmic developments with a tight information-theoretic lower bound for robust SCO.