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Title: The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1737996 1737585 1737770 1737925 2027438
PAR ID:
10172956
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
ISSN:
0027-8424
Page Range / eLocation ID:
202006520
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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