Estimating the travel time for a given path is a fundamental problem in many urban transportation systems. However, prior works fail to well capture moving behaviors embedded in paths and thus do not estimate the travel time accurately. To fill in this gap, in this work, we propose a novel neural network framework, namely Deep Image-based Spatio-Temporal network (DeepIST), for travel time estimation of a given path. The novelty of DeepIST lies in the following aspects:1) we propose to plot a path as a sequence of -generalized images"which include sub-paths along with additional information, such as traffic conditions, road network and traffic signals, in order to harness the power of convolutional neural network model (CNN)on image processing; 2) we design a novel two-dimensional CNN, namely PathCNN, to extract spatial patterns for lines in images by regularization and adopting multiple pooling methods; and 3) we apply a one-dimensional CNN to capture temporal patterns among the spatial patterns along the paths for the estimation. Empirical results show that DeepIST soundly outperforms the state-of-the-art travel time estimation models by 24.37% to 25.64% of mean absolute error (MAE) in multiple large-scale real-world datasets.
more »
« less
Curb-GAN: Conditional Urban Traffic Estimation through Spatio-Temporal Generative Adversarial Networks
Given an urban development plan and the historical traffic observations over the road network, the Conditional Urban Traffic Estimation problem aims to estimate the resulting traffic status prior to the deployment of the plan. This problem is of great importance to urban development and transportation management, yet is very challenging because the plan would change the local travel demands drastically and the new travel demand pattern might be unprecedented in the historical data. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel Conditional Urban Traffic Generative Adversarial Network (Curb-GAN), which provides traffic estimations in consecutive time slots based on different (unprecedented) travel demands, thus enables urban planners to accurately evaluate urban plans before deploying them. The proposed Curb-GAN adopts and advances the conditional GAN structure through a few novel ideas: (1) dealing with various travel demands as the "conditions" and generating corresponding traffic estimations, (2) integrating dynamic convolutional layers to capture the local spatial auto-correlations along the underlying road networks, (3) employing self-attention mechanism to capture the temporal dependencies of the traffic across different time slots. Extensive experiments on two real-world spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate that our Curb-GAN outperforms major baseline methods in estimation accuracy under various conditions and can produce more meaningful estimations.
more »
« less
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10195299
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 842 to 852
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
This article proposes a data-driven combination of travel times, distance, and collision counts in urban mobility datasets, with the goal of quantifying how intertwined traffic accidents are in the road network of a city. We devise a bi-attribute routing problem to capture the tradeoff between travel time and accidents. We apply this to a dataset from New York City. By visualizing the results of this computation in a normalized way, we provide a comparative tool for studies of urban traffic.more » « less
-
Public transits, such as buses and subway lines, offer affordable ride-sharing services and reduce the road network traffic, thus have significant impacts in mitigating the urban traffic congestion problem. However, it is non-trivial to evaluate a new transit plan, such as a new bus route or a new subway line, of its future ridership prior to actual deployment, since the travel preferences of passengers along the planned routes may vary. In this paper, we make the first attempt to model passengers' preferences of making various transit choices using a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Moreover, we develop a novel inverse preference learning algorithm to infer the passengers' preferences and predict the future human behavior changes, e.g., ridership, of a new urban transit plan before its deployment. We validate our proposed framework using a unique real-world dataset (from Shenzhen, China) with three subway lines opened during the data time span. With the data collected from both before and after the transit plan deployments, Our evaluation results demonstrated that the proposed framework can predict the ridership with only 19.8% relative error, which is 23%-51% lower than other baseline approaches.more » « less
-
more » « less
The scaling relations between city attributes and population are emergent and ubiquitous aspects of urban growth. Quantifying these relations and understanding their theoretical foundation, however, is difficult due to the challenge of defining city boundaries and a lack of historical data to study city dynamics over time and space. To address this issue, we analyze scaling between city infrastructure and population across 857 metropolitan areas in the conterminous United States over an unprecedented 115 years (1900–2015) using dasymetrically refined historical population estimates, historical urban road network models, and multi-temporal settlement data to define dynamic city boundaries. We demonstrate that urban scaling exponents closely match theoretical models over a century. Despite some close quantitative agreement with theory, the empirical scaling relations unexpectedly vary across regions. Our analysis of scaling coefficients, meanwhile, reveals that contemporary cities use more developed land and kilometers of road than cities of similar population in 1900, which has serious implications for urban development and impacts on the local environment. Overall, our results provide a new way to study urban systems based on novel, geohistorical data.
-
Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this article, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: (1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference, and to better capture the temporal uncertainties within tasks, cST-ML performs as a rolling window within each task; (2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic-related features; (3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models especially when obvious traffic dynamics and temporal uncertainties are presented.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3394486.3403127
