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Abstract When recording the movement of individual animals, cells or molecules one will often observe changes in their diffusive behaviour at certain points in time along their trajectory. In order to capture the different diffusive modes assembled in such heterogeneous trajectories it becomes necessary to segment them by determining these change-points. Such a change-point detection can be challenging for conventional statistical methods, especially when the changes are subtle. We here applyBayesian Deep Learningto obtain point-wise estimates of not only the anomalous diffusion exponent but also the uncertainties in these predictions from a single anomalous diffusion trajectory generated according to four theoretical models of anomalous diffusion. We show that we are able to achieve an accuracy similar to single-mode (without change-points) predictions as well as a well calibrated uncertainty predictions of this accuracy. Additionally, we find that the predicted uncertainties feature interesting behaviour at the change-points leading us to examine the capabilities of these predictions for change-point detection. While the series of predicted uncertainties on their own are not sufficient to improve change-point detection, they do lead to a performance boost when applied in combination with the predicted anomalous diffusion exponents.
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Reevaluating the Change Point Detection Problem with Segment-based Bayesian Online Detection
Change point detection is widely used for finding transitions between states of data generation within a time series. Methods for change point detection currently assume this transition is instantaneous and therefore focus on finding a single point of data to classify as a change point. However, this assumption is flawed because many time series actually display short periods of transitions between different states of data generation. Previous work has shown Bayesian Online Change Point Detection (BOCPD) to be the most effective method for change point detection on a wide range of different time series. This paper explores adapting the change point detection algorithms to detect abrupt changes over short periods of time. We design a segment-based mechanism to examine a window of data points within a time series, rather than a single data point, to determine if the window captures abrupt change. We test our segment-based Bayesian change detection algorithm on 36 different time series and compare it to the original BOCPD algorithm. Our results show that, for some of these 36 time series, the segment-based approach for detecting abrupt changes can much more accurately identify change points based on standard metrics.
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- PAR ID:
- 10302621
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3459637.3482167
