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1. A Review of Machine Learning for Convective Weather

   https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-22-0077.1  

   McGovern, Amy; Chase, Randy J.; Flora, Montgomery; Gagne, David J.; Lagerquist, Ryan; Potvin, Corey K.; Snook, Nathan; Loken, Eric (July 2023, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems)

   Abstract We present an overview of recent work on using artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) techniques for forecasting convective weather and its associated hazards, including tornadoes, hail, wind, and lightning. These high-impact phenomena globally cause both massive property damage and loss of life, yet they are very challenging to forecast. Given the recent explosion in developing ML techniques across the weather spectrum and the fact that the skillful prediction of convective weather has immediate societal benefits, we present a thorough review of the current state of the art in AI and ML techniques for convective hazards. Our review includes both traditional approaches, including support vector machines and decision trees, as well as deep learning approaches. We highlight the challenges in developing ML approaches to forecast these phenomena across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We end with a discussion of promising areas of future work for ML for convective weather, including a discussion of the need to create trustworthy AI forecasts that can be used for forecasters in real time and the need for active cross-sector collaboration on testbeds to validate ML methods in operational situations. Significance StatementWe provide an overview of recent machine learning research in predicting hazards from thunderstorms, specifically looking at lightning, wind, hail, and tornadoes. These hazards kill people worldwide and also destroy property and livestock. Improving the prediction of these events in both the local space as well as globally can save lives and property. By providing this review, we aim to spur additional research into developing machine learning approaches for convective hazard prediction. 

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2. Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part I: Climatology of Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0345.1  

   Taszarek, Mateusz; Allen, John T.; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Edwards, Roger; Brooks, Harold E.; Chmielewski, Vanna; Enno, Sven-Erik (December 2020, Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract As lightning-detection records lengthen and the efficiency of severe weather reporting increases, more accurate climatologies of convective hazards can be constructed. In this study we aggregate flashes from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Arrival Time Difference long-range lightning detection network (ATDnet) with severe weather reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Data on a common grid of 0.25° and 1-h steps. Each year approximately 75–200 thunderstorm hours occur over the southwestern, central, and eastern United States, with a peak over Florida (200–250 h). The activity over the majority of Europe ranges from 15 to 100 h, with peaks over Italy and mountains (Pyrenees, Alps, Carpathians, Dinaric Alps; 100–150 h). The highest convective activity over continental Europe occurs during summer and over the Mediterranean during autumn. The United States peak for tornadoes and large hail reports is in spring, preceding the maximum of lightning and severe wind reports by 1–2 months. Convective hazards occur typically in the late afternoon, with the exception of the Midwest and Great Plains, where mesoscale convective systems shift the peak lightning threat to the night. The severe wind threat is delayed by 1–2 h compared to hail and tornadoes. The fraction of nocturnal lightning over land ranges from 15% to 30% with the lowest values observed over Florida and mountains (~10%). Wintertime lightning shares the highest fraction of severe weather. Compared to Europe, extreme events are considerably more frequent over the United States, with maximum activity over the Great Plains. However, the threat over Europe should not be underestimated, as severe weather outbreaks with damaging winds, very large hail, and significant tornadoes occasionally occur over densely populated areas. 

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3. Projecting End-of-Century Human Exposure from Tornadoes and Severe Hailstorms in Eastern Colorado: Meteorological and Population Perspectives

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0153.1  

   Childs, Samuel J.; Schumacher, Russ S.; Strader, Stephen M. (July 2020, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   Abstract Severe convective storms along the Front Range and eastern plains of Colorado frequently produce tornadoes and hail, leading to substantial damage and crop losses annually. Determination of future human exposure from these events must consider both changes in meteorological conditions and population dynamics. Projections of EF0 + tornadoes (on the enhanced Fujita scale) and severe [1.0+ in. (25.4+ mm)] hail reports out to the year 2100 are computed using convective parameter proxies generated from dynamically downscaled GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), output by the WRF Model for control and future climate scenarios. The proxies suggest that tornado and hail days in the region may increase by up to one tornado day and three hail days per year by 2100, with the greatest increases across northeastern Colorado. Using a spatially explicit Monte Carlo model, projected future frequency and spatial changes in tornadoes and hail are superimposed with population projections from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to provide a range of possible scenarios for end-of-century human exposure to tornadoes and hailstorms. Changes in hazard frequency and spatial distribution may amplify human exposure up to 117% for tornadoes and 178% for hail in the region by 2100, although specific results are sensitive to uncertain combinations of future overlaps between hazard spatial distribution and population. Findings presented herein not only will provide the public, insurers, policy makers, land-use planners, and researchers with estimates of potential future tornado and hail impacts in the Front Range region, they also will allow the weather enterprise to better understand, prepare for, and communicate tornado and hail risk to eastern Colorado communities. 

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4. Increased extreme humid heat hazard faced by agricultural workers

   https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad028d  

   Diaz, Connor D.; Ting, Mingfang; Horton, Radley; Singh, Deepti; Rogers, Cassandra D. W.; Coffel, Ethan (November 2023, Environmental Research Communications)

   Abstract Increases in population exposure to humid heat extremes in agriculturally-dependent areas of the world highlights the importance of understanding how the location and timing of humid heat extremes intersects with labor-intensive agricultural activities. Agricultural workers are acutely vulnerable to heat-related health and productivity impacts as a result of the outdoor and physical nature of their work and by compounding socio-economic factors. Here, we identify the regions, crops, and seasons when agricultural workers experience the highest hazard from extreme humid heat. Using daily maximum wet-bulb temperature data, and region-specific agricultural calendars and cropland area for 12 crops, we quantify the number of extreme humid heat days during the planting and harvesting seasons for each crop between 1979–2019. We find that rice, an extremely labor-intensive crop, and maize croplands experienced the greatest exposure to dangerous humid heat (integrating cropland area exposed to >27 °C wet-bulb temperatures), with 2001–2019 mean rice and maize cropland exposure increasing 1.8 and 1.9 times the 1979–2000 mean exposure, respectively. Crops in socio-economically vulnerable regions, including Southeast Asia, equatorial South America, the Indo-Gangetic Basin, coastal Mexico, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea, experience the most frequent exposure to these extremes, in certain areas exceeding 60 extreme humid heat days per year when crops are being cultivated. They also experience higher trends relative to other world regions, with certain areas exceeding a 15 day per decade increase in extreme humid heat days. Our crop and location-specific analysis of extreme humid heat hazards during labor-intensive agricultural seasons can inform the design of policies and efforts to reduce the adverse health and productivity impacts on this vulnerable population that is crucial to the global food system. 

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5. Agricultural Perspectives on Hailstorm Severity, Vulnerability, and Risk Messaging in Eastern Colorado

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0015.1  

   Childs, Samuel J.; Schumacher, Russ S.; Demuth, Julie L. (October 2020, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   Abstract Eastern Colorado is one of the most active hail regions in the United States, and individual hailstorms routinely surpass millions of dollars in crop loss and physical damage. Fifteen semistructured interviews with eastern Colorado farmers and ranchers were conducted in the summer of 2019 to gauge perceptions of the severity and vulnerability associated with hailstorms, as well as to understand how forecasts and warnings for severe hail are received and acted upon by the agricultural community. Results reveal a correspondence between perceived and observed frequency of hailstorms in eastern Colorado and highlight financial losses from crop destruction as the greatest threat from hailstorms. In contrast to the National Weather Service defining severe hail as at least 1.0 in. (25.4 mm) in diameter, the agricultural community conceptualizes hail severity according to impacts and damage. Small hail in large volumes or driven by a strong wind are the most worrisome scenarios for farmers, because small hail can most easily strip crop heads and stalks. Larger hailstones are perceived to pose less of a threat to crops but can produce significant damage to physical equipment and injure livestock. Eastern Colorado farmers and ranchers are avid weather watchers and associate environmental cues with hailstorms in addition to receiving warning messages, primarily via alerts on mobile telephones. Hailstorms elicit feelings of dejection and anxiety in some respondents, whereas others accept hailstorms as part of the job. Increasing awareness of the agricultural perceptions of hailstorms can help the meteorological community direct hail prediction research efforts and improve risk communication to the agricultural sector. 

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