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Abstract Ice‐off dates on lakes are some of the longest phenological records in the field of ecology, and some of the best evidence of long‐term climatic change. However, there has been little investigation as to whether the date of ice‐off on a lake impacts spring and summer ecosystem dynamics. Here, I analyzed 274 years of long‐term data from eight north temperate lakes in two climate zones to address whether lakes have ecological memory of ice‐off in the subsequent summer. Five metrics were investigated: epilimnion temperatures, hypolimnion temperatures, hypolimnetic oxygen drawdown, water clarity, and spring primary productivity. The response of the metrics to ice‐off date were variable across latitude and lake type. The northern set of lakes stratified quickly following ice‐off, and early ice‐off years resulted in significantly warmer hypolimnetic temperatures. Oxygen depletion in the hypolimnion was not impacted by ice‐off date, likely because in late ice‐off years the lakes did not fully mix. In the southern lakes, ice‐off date was not correlated to the onset of stratification, with the latter being a more dominant control on hypolimnetic temperature and oxygen. The implications of these findings is that as ice‐off date trends earlier in many parts of the world, the lakes that will likely experience the largest changes in spring and summer ecosystem properties are the lakes that currently have the longest duration of lake ice. In considering a future with warmer winters, these results provide a starting point for predicting how lake ecosystem properties will change with earlier ice‐off.
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This content will become publicly available on November 1, 2026
Ecological Memory Contributes to a Spatial Mismatch in Water Quality Trends Between the Surface and Bottom Waters of 382 Temperate Lakes
ABSTRACT Ecosystem states are often influenced by both concurrent and antecedent environmental drivers. However, the relative importance of antecedent conditions varies within and among ecosystems. Here, we analysed long‐term depth‐profile data from 382 temperate lakes across 10 countries to assess how differential changes in spring versus summer air temperature mediate summer water quality. We found that summer bottom‐water conditions were more associated with spring air temperatures, while surface‐water conditions were more associated with summer air temperatures. The relative influence of spring versus summer air temperature was mediated by lake morphometry, stratification and latitude. Across these lakes, summer air temperatures have increased more rapidly than spring air temperatures, potentially contributing to a growing thermal difference between surface and bottom waters (median = +0.5°C/decade). Consequently, our results demonstrate that predicting the ecological impacts of climate change may require considering spatial differences in ecological memory within ecosystems.
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- PAR ID:
- 10650798
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology Letters
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1461-023X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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